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- Kansas City (11-6) is a 3.5-point home favorite over the Dolphins (11-6) on Super Wild Card Weekend
- Tyreek Hill led the league with 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns this season
- Saturday’s primetime NFL playoff game kicks off from Kansas City, MO at 8:00pm ET
A 21-14 home loss to Buffalo cost the Dolphins their first AFC East title since 2008. Miami will now travel to Kansas City on Wild Card Weekend, in what will be Tyreek Hill’s first game back at Arrowhead since being traded. While Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs have struggled offensively this season without their former star receiver, Andy Reid’s club still captured their eighth-straight AFC West championship.
Before we check the odds and make our picks, here’s where you can find the best tips for betting on the 2024 NFL playoffs and the top betting sites for NFL football.
Chiefs vs Dolphins
 | Spread | Money Line | Total Points |
| Miami Dolphins | +3.5 (-110) | +162 | Ov 43.5 (-110) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -3.5 (-110) | -182 | Un 43.5 (-110) |
Can Miami rebound?
Miami dropped three of its last five games to fall to the sixth-seed in the AFC. The Dolphins have been decimated on the defensive side of the ball, losing edge rushers Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips and Andrew Van Ginkel in recent weeks. However, cornerback Xavien Howard, receiver Jaylen Waddle and veteran back Raheem Mostert should all return versus the Chiefs after missing Sunday’s loss to Buffalo.
Tua Tagovaoloa led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards this season, connecting with Tyreek Hill for a league-leading 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Another season, another epic campaign from Tyreek Hill 🌊 pic.twitter.com/yerxs5MmD9
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) January 8, 2024
KC’s offensive struggles
Kansas City should be the fresher team after resting their starters in a 13-12 win over the Chargers. The victory gave the Chiefs 11-plus wins for the sixth consecutive season, but their offense has looked broken all year. Patrick Mahomes finished sixth in passing yards (4,183) and eighth in passing TDs (27) with a career-high 14 interceptions.
Travis Kelce also failed to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the eighth-straight season after sitting out of Sunday’s contest. The lone bright spot has been rookie Rashee Rice, who made 35 receptions for 411 yards and two scores in the month of December.
Kansas City vs Miami
Kansas City is a 3.5-point home favorite in Arrowhead on Saturday night with the over-under set at 43.5 points. The Chiefs defeated Miami 21-14 in Germany back in Week 9, with both teams failing to muster 300 yards of total offense. In that contest, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense limited Tyreek Hill to eight grabs for 62 yards with no touchdowns and a crucial fumble.
KC has allowed the second-fewest yards (289.8) and points per game (17.3) this season. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ defense steadily improved down the stretch under Vic Fangio. But they’ll be hard pressed to pressure Mahomes without their three top edge rushers.
Chris Jones sack earns him a cool $1.25 million sack incentive
The boys are FIRED up for him
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) January 7, 2024
Best Bet
Patrick Mahomes has a 9-2 career playoff record at Arrowhead. (Not to mention his two Super Bowl victories.) While their offense looks broken, the Chiefs should muster up enough points to defeat the injury-ravaged Dolphins on Saturday night.
We’ll take Kansas City to cover (-3.5) with the UNDER 43.5 points.
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