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Reddit End of 1st day trading
If you’ve ever sought answers to obscure questions or searched for exciting activities in an unfamiliar city, you’ve likely encountered Reddit.
The internet forum may evoke nostalgia for ’90s chatrooms. Still, it boasts a robust online presence, an influential user base (have you ever heard of GameStop?), and a path to becoming a public company.
| Reddit End of 1st day trading share price |  |  |  |
| Over $38.50 | -120 | -120 | -120 |
| Under $38.50 | -120 | -120 | -120 |
In 2021, Reddit announced its confidential filing of IPO paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) but held off on going public.
🚨BREAKING: A few days ahead of its IPO, Reddit has just been notified by the US Federal Trade Commission that they are investigating the company’s AI training deals. This is what Reddit disclosed:
“(…) on March 14, 2024, we received a letter from the FTC advising us that the… pic.twitter.com/xO2rV6CnaR
— Luiza Jarovsky (@LuizaJarovsky) March 16, 2024
Reddit has submitted its IPO prospectus to the SEC, selected a ticker (“RDDT”), and designated its future home: the New York Stock Exchange. According to CNBC, Reddit aims to be valued at up to $6.5 billion.
Per a letter from Reddit co-founder Steve Huffman estimates, more than 76 million people visited Reddit on average every day in December 2023.
Oddsmakers are speculating that the price of Reddit shares will be around $40. They’ve set a total price of $38.50 with the same -120 odds on both the over and the under.
With the same odds on both sides of the total, there doesn’t seem to be an advantage in one way or the other on this one.
I will be bullish on this one and lean on the Over $38.50 option. In my experience, tech stocks usually open up strong. I would bet Over $38.50 at -120 odds on this prop.
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Reddit End of 1st-day trading valuation
Our next option also involves Reddit and its first day on the market.
| End of 1st day trading valuation | | | |
| Over $6.5 Billion | -180 | -180 | -180 |
| Under $6.5 Billion | +140 | +140 | +140 |
Reddit offers a unique platform, distinct from its competitors, focusing more on question-and-answer sessions and in-depth discussions than Instagram-like visual content.
However, as it enters the arena of public companies, it faces tough competition from heavyweights like Meta, TikTok, and Pinterest.
Reports from Bloomberg suggest that Reddit has yet to achieve a full-year profit despite its two main revenue streams: advertising and Reddit Premium.
The latter allows users to pay $5.99 per month to avoid advertisements. Upon their introduction, both revenue sources were met with resistance from Reddit users.
Reddit, as It Prepares for an IPO, Says the FTC Has Asked About Its AI Data-Licensing Program https://t.co/vUmAo6VqFX
— Barron’s (@barronsonline) March 15, 2024
However, Reddit’s distinctiveness is undeniable. In the IPO paperwork, co-founder Steve Huffman highlighted Reddit’s role in people’s lives, particularly providing support during critical moments.
“Whatever people are into or going through, it is on Reddit. I am particularly proud of Reddit’s role in supporting people during pivotal life moments when turning to friends and family may not be an option.
Somebody might visit r/Parenting for help when they’re having trouble with a child, or go to r/lgbt for advice about coming out, or they might turn to r/stopdrinking for help quitting drinking, as I did more than four years ago,” said Huffman.
When investing in any stock, it’s essential to assess the company’s fundamentals, such as revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
For newer public companies like Reddit, this information may be less accessible as private companies aren’t required to publish regular reports.
However, once Reddit goes public, the SEC will obligate it to provide regular financial updates, making this information more readily available.
Oddsmakers believe this will be a profitable opening by placing a -180 price on the Over $6.5 Billion option. I would tend to agree and advise on betting that option as well.
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Reddit profitable by end of 2024
The last option regarding Reddit is betting on if it will be profitable by the end of the year.
| Reddit to post a profit by end of 2024 | | | |
| Yes | +500 | +500 | +500 |
Reddit has faced challenges in achieving profitability since its inception in 2005.
After recording a loss of nearly $159 million in 2022, the platform increased its sales to $804 million in the following year, marking a growth of almost 21%.
This progress helped to narrow its losses to approximately $91 million. In its recent filing, Reddit’s leadership outlined several strategies to boost revenue to achieve profitability.
One such avenue is exploring business deals where AI companies pay to access databases containing human-written text.
These databases enable AI models to enhance their conversational skills, answer questions, and generate written content and images upon request.
Oddsmakers are not impressed with Reddit’s history and have posted a whopping +500 option for it to be profitable by the end of the year.
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