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- What: UFC 304 Main Event
- Who: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2
- Date: Saturday, July 27, 2024
- Location: Co-op Live in Manchester, England
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The next UFC pay-per-view card, UFC 304, takes place on July 27 at Co-op Live in Manchester, England. In the main event of that ESPN+ streaming pay-per-view card, UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards, who fights out of Birmingham, England, faces American Belal Muhammad. Edwards is looking to defend his crown for the third time, while Muhammad competes in his first UFC title fight. Below is some background on the fighters before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC 304.
Leon Edwards (22-3-0-1) is unbeaten in his past 13 fights. He won the UFC welterweight title in August 2022 with a last-minute head-kick knockout of Kamaru Usman. He has two title defenses to his name, decision wins over Usman and Colby Covington.
Belal Muhammad (23-3-0-1) is on a 10-fight unbeaten run. He is the No. 2 fighter in the official UFC welterweight division rankings. Muhammad is coming off a May 2023 decision win over one-time UFC welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns.
The first meeting between Edwards and Muhammad, which took place in 2021 ended in a no contest after an accidental eye poke in the second round left Muhammad unable to continue.
Before we look at the best bets for the Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad rematch on the UFC 304 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC 304 main event: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2 betting picks
| To Win UFC Welterweight Title |  |  |  |  |
| Belal Muhammad | +155 | +160 | +165 | +153 |
| Leon Edwards | -180 | -190 | -200 | -199 |
UFC 304: Leon Edwards betting breakdown
Edwards is a well-rounded fighter who has continued to develop over the years. He is an athlete who is always adding to his toolset, which was evident in his rematch against Usman, where he showed growth in his work in the clinch and his ability to hinder his opponent’s grappling in that matchup. Edwards is well-trained and can make in-fight adjustments as needed. He won’t be lacking in confidence heading into this fight after beating Usman and Covington, two of the more dangerous fighters in the current welterweight landscape.
Edwards was a -270 betting favorite when these two first met. At the time, Edwards was the No. 3 fighter in the official UFC welterweight rankings.
What stands out about Edwards is that his game has no exploitable gaps, which he showed when he held Covington to two takedowns on 10 attempts in their matchup.
Edwards averages 2.75 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 53 percent. He absorbs 2.34 significant strikes per minute with a defense of 54 percent. The champ picks up an average of 1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes and succeeds on 34 percent of his takedown attempts. Edwards has a takedown defense of 70 percent.
UFC 304: Belal Muhammad betting picks
Belal Muhammad is a pressure fighter who is best known for his wrestling and the pace he can set during a fight. Muhammad, who has an excellent fight IQ, who knows what type of game plan will best suit him against a particular opponent. If his foe has a grappling weakness, Muhammad will look to exploit that. If the fighter he’s matched up against is deficient in their striking, Muhammad will avoid wrestling and look to keep the fight standing, where he is also good, especially when he mixes up his timing and movement. The problem facing Muhammad is that Edwards does not have an aspect of his game that can be exploited.
Muhammad was a +220 betting underdog when he faced Edwards the first time.
Muhammad lands 4.55 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 43 percent. His striking defense is 57 percent, and he absorbs 3.64 significant strikes per minute. Muhammad lands 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes and has an accuracy of 35 percent. His takedown defense is an outstanding 93 percent.
Muhammad has not attempted a takedown in his past two fights.
UFC 304 Betting Breakdown: Takeaways from Edwards vs. Muhammad 1
The first fight between these two did not last long, but there were some notable takeaways from the brief contest.
Edwards was the one who took control of the pace and space of the fight. He pressured Muhammad from the opening of the contest, forcing him to his back foot and putting his back to the fence. Edwards mixed up his targets and techniques and showed that he was unafraid to engage Muhammad in the clinch. The English fighter also scored a big head kick that wobbled Muhammad early in the first round. Edwards also did a nice job of mixing things up by doing a lot of stance switching, while also doing more damage with his strikes.
Edwards landed 48 percent of his significant strikes in that contest, while Muhammad landed 30 percent. While Muhammad concentrated on head strikes (87 percent) and landed a few body blows (12 percent), but zero leg kicks, Edwards mixed up his targets (53 percent to the head, 26 percent to the body, and 21 percent to the legs).
Best Bets: UFC 304 Main Event – Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2
Leon Edwards has gone better since the first time he faced Belal Muhammad. He has developed his fight IQ, added to his arsenal, and fought in four bouts that either went the five-round distance or went deep into the fifth round. That’s not to say Muhammad has stagnated, but he is not as well-rounded as the champion. The betting pick is for Leon Edwards to defeat Belal Muhammad at UFC 304 by decision, but there is a chance he might end the fight by knockout. If one is leaning toward Muhammad, the bet there is for him to win via decision.
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