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- What: UFC Vegas 95 Main Event
- Who: Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac 2
- Date: Saturday, August 10, 2024
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas
- Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET), Main Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN+
A rematch between top 10 ranked heavyweights headlines this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The main event of UFC Vegas 95 sees Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac run back their 2020 meeting which Tybura won by unanimous decision. Below is some background on the fighters before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC Vegas 95.
Marcin Tybura (25-8) is the No. 8 fighter in the UFC heavyweight rankings. Tybura is 7-2 since he defeated Spivac in 2020. He is coming off a submission win over Tai Tuivasa in March. His two losses since the first meeting with Spivac are to Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov.
Serghei Spivac (16-4) is ranked No. 9 in the UFC heavyweight division. He is 6-2 since his loss to Tybura. Spivac is coming off a September 2023 loss to Ciryl Gane. His other loss following his first fight with Tybura came against Aspinall.
Before we look at the best bets for the UFC Vegas 95 main event, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC Vegas 95 main event: Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac 2 betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Serghei Spivac | -155 | -160 | -160 | -160 |
| Marcin Tybura | +135 | +135 | +130 | +125 |
UFC Vegas 95: Marcin Tybura betting breakdown
Marcin Tybura was up and down during his early days with the UFC, posting a 4-5 record with the promotion between April 2016 and September 2019. However, Tybura found his groove after that, winning five straight before falling to Alexander Volkov via decision at UFC 267. Following that setback, Tybura picked up two decision wins before losing to Aspinall via TKO. One thing to note ahead of Tybura’s rematch with Spivac is that five of his career defeats have come via knockout.
Tybura is a grinding fighter. He’s generally durable, as he has gone the distance 12 times in his career, including three of his past five UFC matchups. However, Tybura is not a very active striker. Instead, he waits for opportunities and then throws punches in bunches. If he gets the fight to the mat, Tybura is effective with his ground strikes.
Tybura lands 3.60 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy rate of 48 percent. He gets tagged, on average, with 3.35 strikes, and he has a striking defense of 55 percent. Tybura averages 1.43 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy rate is 33 percent, and his takedown defense stands at 79 percent.
Serghei Spivac betting breakdown
Serghei Spivac has been with the UFC for five years. During that time, he’s racked up the second most takedowns in the history of the UFC heavyweight division with 27. In the three fights before his loss to Gane, none of which went past the 3:42 mark of Round 2, Spivac accumulated an eye-opening 15 takedowns. He is No. 1 all-time in UFC heavyweight history in takedown accuracy at 64.3 percent. Expect Spivac to look to close distance and get the fight to that mat. If he can do that, Spivac, who has a top position percentage of 32.9, could give Tybura issues on the mat.
Spivac’s striking is there to set up his takedowns and he can struggle against an opponent who has strong striking skills and good takedown defense.
Spivac lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 49 percent. His striking defense is 49 percent, and he gets hit 3.79 times per minute. Spivac lands 4.56 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown defense is 70 percent.
Best Bets for UFC Vegas 95: Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac 2
Tybura won the first fight between these two via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28), so the question to ask is what has changed that would give Spivac a chance to flip that outcome. The answer to that inquiry is not much. Both fighters largely use the same style they did when they first faced off in 2020. The betting pick is Tybura to Spivac via decision.
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