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- What: UFC 307 Co-Main Event
- Who: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena
- Date: Saturday, October 5, 2024
- Location: Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPNews), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The next UFC pay-per-view fight card, UFC 307, takes place on Saturday, October 5, at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. In the main event of the ESPN+ PPV card, UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira defends his title against Khalil Rountree Jr. In the evening’s co-main event, UFC women’s bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington puts her title on the line against former champ Julianna Pena. Here is some background on the co-main event fighters before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC 306.
Raquel Pennington (16-8) is on a six-fight winning streak. The UFC veteran claimed the women’s bantamweight crown in January with a decision win over Mayra Bueno Silva.
Julianna Pena (11-5) is competing for the first time since she lost the title to Amanda Nunes in July 2022. Pena ended Nunes’ lengthy title reign by submission in December 2021 but lost the belt in the rematch.
Before we look at the best bets for Pennington vs. Pena on the UFC 307 PPV fight card, check out the best UFC betting sites and our betting picks for the UFC 307 main event.
UFC 307 Co-Main Event: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Raquel Pennington | -190 | -190 | -190 | -187 |
| Julianna Pena | +165 | +163 | +160 | +145 |
UFC 307: Raquel Pennington betting breakdown
Raquel Pennington has been fighting the best of the best of best in the UFC for a long while. Her five UFC losses have come at the hands of Jessica Andrade, Holly Holm (twice), Amanda Nunes, and Germaine de Randamie, all fighters who have held UFC gold at one point in their careers. Her run with the UFC began in 2013 when she defeated Roxanna Modafferi on The Ultimate Fighter Season 18 finale fight card. No woman in the UFC bantamweight division has as many UFC fights as Pennington, at 17.
Pennington might not employ a fighting style that gets fans out of their seats, she has 11 decision wins, four submissions, and one knockout during her career, but she is a controlling fighter. She moves forward with her striking and forces her opponent to the fence. This approach removes her foe’s ability to create meaningful offense while allowing Pennington to accumulate control time. In her title-winning matchup against Bueno Silva, Pennington earned 11:28 of control time in the 25-minute contest. Pennington’s career control time at 135 pounds is second all-time at 1:04:39. She is also first all-time in the division in significant strikes landed with 1,056. Her total strikes landed of 1,575 is more than 300 higher than the No. 2 fighter in the division, Karol Rosa.
Pennington lands 4.14 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 52 percent. She absorbs 3.29 significant strikes per minute, and her striking defense is 60 percent. The champ averages 0.90 takedowns per 15 minutes, and her takedown accuracy is 27 percent. Pennington has a takedown defense of 63 percent.
UFC 307: Julianna Pena betting breakdown
Julianna Pena shocked the MMA world at UFC 269 when she overcame steep betting odds to end Amanda Nunes’ run as UFC women’s bantamweight champion. Nunes was listed as the -1000 betting favorite on fight night, while Pena was the +650 betting underdog. Pena used her jab to keep Nunes at distance and then scored with combinations. For some reason, Nunes opted to exchange with Pena during that contest, leaving her fatigued, which set up the opportunity for Pena to pick up the submission win.
The rematch saw Nunes come in as the -255 favorite over the +215 champ. That fight played out much differently, with Nunes not allowing Pena to establish her striking and pressure. With that, Nunes cruised to a decision win, regained her title, and then promptly retired from the sport, leaving the UFC women’s bantamweight title vacant.
Pena is a well-rounded fighter who employs a lot of pressure, but her striking is not very technical. She throws her power strikes with some recklessness, which leaves her open for someone like Pennington to get in close and move the fight to the fence, where she does her best work. In order for Pena to regain the title, she needs to goad Pennington into a slugfest in the open, which will be hard to do.
Pena lands 3.16 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 47 percent. Her striking defense is 50 percent, and she gets hit 2.30 times per minute. The ex-champ lands 1.94 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 55 percent. Pena’s takedown defense is 23 percent.
Best Bets: UFC 307 Co-Main Event – Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena
Julianna Pena will not show Raquel Pennington something she hasn’t seen before at UFC 307. If Pennington can fight her fight and not get into a slugfest with Pena, she should be able to implement her style of forcing the fight to take place in close quarters against the fence, where the champ does her best work.
The betting pick for the co-main event of UFC 307 is for Raquel Pennington to grind out a decision win over Julianna Pena.
See below the top offshore sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
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