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- What: UFC 306
- Who: Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont
- Date: Saturday, September 14, 2024
- Location: Sphere in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Early Prelims (7:30 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The much anticipated Riyadh Season Noche UFC fight card takes place on Saturday, September 14, from Sphere in Las Vegas. The event, also known as UFC 306, marks the fight promotion’s second celebration of Mexican Independence Day, is headlined by a bantamweight title fight. That matchup finds UFC 135-pound champion Sean O’Malley putting his title on the line against the No. 1 ranked Merab Dvalishvili. The evening’s co-main event is a trilogy title fight between UFC women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and former champ Valentina Shevchenko. Before that, Irene Aldana meets Norma Dumont in a women’s bantamweight contest. Here is some background on Aldana and Dumont before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC 306.
Irene Aldana (15-7) is the No. 5 fighter in the UFC women’s 135-pound division. She is 3-1 in her past four outings. Her only loss during that stretch was a 2023 decision setback to then-UFC champion Amanda Nunes. Aldana bounced back from that loss with a December decision victory over Karol Rosa.
Norma Dumont (11-2) is ranked at No. 9 in the UFC women’s bantamweight division. She is on a four-fight winning streak. Her most recent bout saw her drop from 145 to 135, where she defeated former UFC women’s featherweight champ Germaine de Randamie by decision in April.
Before we look at the best bets for Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont on the UFC 306 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and the best bets for the UFC 306 main event.
UFC 306: Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Irene Aldana | -130 | -128 | -130 | -137 |
| Norma Dumont | +110 | +107 | EVEN | +108 |
Irene Aldana betting breakdown
The 36-year-old Irene Aldana earned herself a UFC title shot with a 7-2 run with the promotion between 2018 and 2022. Aldana’s only losses during that run came to current UFC women’s bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington in 2019 and former 135-pound titleholder Holly Holm in 2020. Both those setbacks were by decision. UFC 306 is a must-win fight for the Mexican fighter if she hopes to get back to a second title shot.
Aldana has good technical striking skills, but she also packs some power in her strikes, as evidenced by her eight career knockout wins. Three of her knockout wins came during her run to her title fight against Nunes, with two of the stoppages earning fight-night bonus awards for Aldana. She has good cardio and can set a decent pace throughout her fights. She also has strong takedown defense, which allows her to keep the fight standing, which is where she prefers to work. Her losses to Nunes and Holm saw her get taken down 11 times in total and give up more than 12 minutes of control time.
In her most recent outing, Aldana landed 145 significant strikes in defeating Rosa in a “Fight of the Night” bonus-winning scrap.
Aldana has a two-inch height advantage and a one-inch reach advantage over Dumont. She lands 5.24 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 40 percent. Her striking defense is 57 percent, but she gets hit a lot, 6.33 times per minute on average. Aldana averages 0.16 takedowns per 15 minutes and succeeds on 50 percent of her attempts.
Norma Dumont betting breakdown
With the UFC women’s featherweight division disappearing, Norma Dumont, who had seven fights with the UFC at 145 pounds, made the move to 135 in her most recent outing. The 33-year-old Brazilian found success at bantamweight, defeating ex-featherweight champion Germaine de Randamie by decision. On Saturday, Dumont looks to capitalize on that victory against the higher-ranked Aldana.
Dumont is a solid technical striker, who doesn’t have the highest output. However, her defense is sound, and she has an excellent significant striking differential. Dumont also has solid grappling and is good at getting the fight to the mat. In her past four fights, all wins, Dumont has 12 takedowns and over 30 minutes of control time. She went six-for-eight in takedowns against De Randamie and had more than 10 minutes of control time, but no submission attempts.
Dumont must go all in on her wrestling early in this contest if she hopes to succeed against Aldana, who is the better striker. If she tries to engage in a striking matchup or Aldana defends her takedowns, Dumont could struggle.
Dumont averages 3.11 significant strikes per minute with a success rate of 49 percent. Her striking defense is 66 percent, and she only gets hit 1.89 times per minute. Dumont averages 1.91 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 68 percent takedown accuracy. Her takedown defense is 72 percent.
Best Bets – UFC 306: Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont
This fight comes down to who can impose their will. Aldana is the better striker, while Dumont is the better grappler. I like the underdog in this matchup. Dumont and her team must know that the best route to victory is through takedowns and ground control. Expect her to shoot early and often and to wear down Aldana on the mat.
The betting pick is for Norma Dumont to beat Irene Aldana via decision.
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