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- What: UFC Paris
- Who: Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis
- Date: Saturday, September 28, 2024
- Location: Accor Arena in Paris, France
- Time: Prelims (12:00 p.m. ET) Main Card (3:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN+
The UFC returns to Paris, France, on Saturday, September 28, for a UFC Fight Night event at the Accor Arena. In the main event of that fight card, Renato Moicano and Benoit Saint Denis face off in a contest that will affect the UFC lightweight rankings. Moicano enters the upcoming card as the No. 11 competitor in the official UFC lightweight rankings, while Saint Denis is the No. 12 fighter in the promotion’s 155-pound division. Here is some background information on the fighters before we discuss the betting breakdown of the UFC Paris main event.
Renato Moicano (19-5-1) is riding a three-fight winning streak since his 2022 loss to former UFC lightweight champ Rafael dos Anjos. Moicano is coming off an April TKO win over Jalin Turner. The victory marked Moicano’s first career knockout win. He also has 10 submissions and eight decisions. He has three losses by knockout. His other losses came via submission and decision.
Benoit Saint Denis (13-2-0-1) saw his five-fight UFC winning streak end in March when former UFC interim lightweight champ Dustin Poirier knocked him out at UFC 299. Saint Denis’ other career loss came in his UFC debut when Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos defeated him via decision. Saint Denis has four knockout wins and nine submission victories.
Before we look at the best bets for Moicano vs. Saint Denis on the UFC Paris card, check out the best UFC betting sites and our betting picks for the UFC 307 main event.
UFC Paris Main Event: Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Benoit Saint Denis | -250 | -275 | -250 | -280 |
| Renato Moicano | +210 | +225 | +200 | +208 |
Renato Moicano betting breakdown
Renato Moicano fought three times in 2022. He missed all of 2023 due to injury. The UFC Paris main event marks the third fight for the 35-year-old UFC veteran in 2024. Moicano joined the promotion in 2014.
Moicano is best known for his submission skills. The Brazilian has 10 career submission wins and eight decision victories in his MMA career. Moicano has picked up six of those submission victories under the UFC banner. Along with his grappling skills, Moicano is a solid technical striker who can set and sustain a good pace throughout his fights. He also throws his strikes in volume, works well behind his jab, and is impressive in controlling the range where his fights take place. The majority of Moicano’s strikes target the head. In his five-round contests against former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos, 87 percent of Moicano’s significant strikes targeted his foe’s head. Dos Anjos won that scrap via decision. That number increased to 88 percent in his knockout win over Turner.
If there is a knock against Moicano, it’s that his chin doesn’t always hold up when he gets tagged. That’s not great for a fighter who lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute while getting hit at a rate of 3.68 times per 60 seconds. Three of Moicano’s losses have come via knockout. All those defeats have come while he has been a member of the UFC roster. Moicano’s striking accuracy is 48 percent, and his striking defense is 60 percent. He lands 1.89 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy of 45 percent. His takedown defense is 72 percent.
Benoit Saint Denis betting breakdown
UFC 299 marked a big step up in competition for Benoit Saint Denis. That matchup against Dustin Poirier marked his second fight against a ranked opponent after dispatching the then-ranked 14 Matt Frevola in November 2023. The French fighter impressed in that contest, ending Frevola’s night in 91 seconds via a perfectly timed head kick, however, Poirier, who was the betting underdog to the up-and-coming fighter, knocked out Saint Denis in the second round.
Saint Denis is a well-rounded fighter, with all of his victories coming through knockout (four) or submission (nine). He has not gone past the second round in a win during his career. Saint Denis is a measured striker. He stalks his opponent in the cage and looks to back them into the fence. Once his foe is trapped, the French fighter unloads flurries of strikes in the hopes of picking up a knockout win. In open space, Saint Denis fights almost flat-footed, advancing deliberately while looking to uncork damaging strikes.
Saint Denis tends to drop his defensive guard when he feels he is in control. His sometimes plodding footwork in the open is also a worry because he provides a stationary target.
Saint Denis lands an average of 5.70 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 54 percent. He absorbs a concerning 4.98 significant strikes per minute, and his defensive striking number of 42 percent is worrying. Saint Denis averages 4.76 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 37 percent. His takedown defense is 69 percent.
Best Bets: UFC Paris main event: Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis
Much of how this fight turns out depends on how Benoit Saint Denis responds to his loss to Dustin Poirier. He dominated the first round of that fight before getting finished. On the other hand, Renato Moicano was close to getting finished by Jalin Turner before he came back to get the stoppage win.
The betting pick for the UFC Paris main event is Benoit Saint Denis to beat Renato Moicano by knockout.
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