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Seattle was the beneficiary of the latest expansion team in the “Big Four” sports leagues — the Kraken, which debuted in the NHL in 2021. Rumors are swirling they could get another in the NBA though.
It’s only rumors (for now), but it makes sense for reasons we’ll soon get into. But at the same time, Seattle — and the state of Washington at large — will have to earn it. Earn it by being a location good enough to entice the league and its owners to bring a fresh franchise. It’s worth looking at that through a betting lens, given this is a major new revenue stream for sports teams.
Hear us out on this topic because we haven’t heard anyone else raise the topic besides us. Let’s get into it!
NBA Open To Expansion
The last time the NBA had an expansion team was in 2004 — the Charlotte Bobcats, who are now the Hornets. That’s been an entire 20 years, which makes the league prone to expansion. Given the NBA currently has 30 teams, expanding to 32 makes way too much sense. That would perfectly divide the conferences into 16 teams akin to the NFL, the league the NBA is sorely chasing.
This isn’t just us speculating, the NBA and league commissioner Adam Silver has said as much as so. He spoke on the topic during September when the league’s board of governors met in New York.
“There was not a lot of discussion in this meeting about expansion, but only largely not for lack of interest, it was that we had said to them that we’re not quite ready…it was something that we told our board we plan to address this season, and we’re not quite ready yet.”
So there you have it folks: the league wants it, maybe just not now at this very moment. But this was in September. Now that the NBA has settled on a new television and streaming contract, its biggest order of business is finished. We imagine expansion will become a priority in 2025.
Funny enough, the best offshore sportsbooks have odds available on which cities get these teams. The frontrunner is Las Vegas at +110 odds, but right on their tail is Seattle at +150. The next-best favorite? Mexico City, but all the way down at +750 odds. Louisville is next at +1000.
This means Seattle and Vegas are locks for the next NBA franchises, right? Welp, not so fast. As we’ll discuss in the next section, Seattle has some unique challenges to overcome, including the lack of betting.
Lack Of Betting Could Hurt Seattle
The headline says what it says — betting could be a deciding factor in why Seattle does or does not get a team. It’s not that betting in Washington is not a thing. It is, contrary to popular belief. But the issue is the legal sports betting market is very limited in the entire state as the tribes can offer it in-person (no DraftKings or FanDuel apps allowed).
At the end of the day, the NBA and its owners are motivated by profit. Right now, betting is responsible for lots of those profits — and that number is only rising more and more. But to capitalize, you need regulations that support it. That’s not Seattle now or probably ever. The state of Washington has shown zero appetite to expand betting beyond just tribes and physical casinos.
This is a stark contrast to Seattle’s chief opponent in the race, Vegas. Betting is not only allowed there but the city’s corporate culture is built entirely around the industry. Just ask the Raiders, it’s the casinos that are spending big on box seats to treat its VIP players at games. An NBA team in Sin City would also benefit from these big buyers bidding on the most expensive seats.
We know what you’re probably thinking, “but the NBA wants two teams, can’t they just get both?” Well, we’re not so sure about that. Remember, the NBA breaks its conferences up by location — West and East. Both Vegas and Seattle are squarely on the West. If Vegas is the frontrunner in the West, who’s to say NBA won’t pick someone else in the East that makes more geographical sense?
Seattle has another thing going against it besides a lack of free-market betting. It also has an outdated arena in Climate Pledge Arena. This thing was opened in 1962. Sure, it’s undergone some renovations, but it’s far from a state-of-the-art location. Matter of fact, the aging arena is the reason why Seattle lost its NBA team in the first place. The SuperSonics became the Oklahoma City Thunder largely because of the poor state of the arena.
Yes, Seattle has a strong sports culture, booming city, and tech ecosystem that makes it an attractive market. We’re not denying those strengths. But it has some pretty strong weaknesses too, and an issue like sports betting could become a tiebreaker in that situation. We’re just throwing caution into the wind because a return to Seattle for the NBA isn’t a foregone conclusion like fans are making it out to be.
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