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We get an interesting opportunity to bet on the punishment that Man City will face after their upcoming inquiry.
Manchester City FC faces charges for violating financial fair play regulations over a nine-year span from 2009 to 2018. Additionally, they have been accused of not cooperating with Premier League investigations into their financial activities.
Throughout this period, Man City, who have denied all allegations, secured the Premier League title three times.
The financial fair play rules set by the Premier League aim to ensure that clubs spend according to their earnings. However, there are ways to circumvent these rules, such as exaggerating income or concealing expenditures.
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The Premier League has stated that Manchester City violated regulations across a span of nine seasons by allegedly not providing accurate financial data.
For anyone who doesn't know, here is a detailed breakdown of the 115 charges Manchester City are facing:
54 Charges: Failure to provide accurate financial information from the 2009-10 season to the 2017-18 season. This involves not providing a true and fair view of the club's…
— Alex (@AlexF1BCL) December 3, 2024
One of the allegations is that the club failed to fully disclose the financial compensation given to one of its managers over the course of four years.
There are claims of a hidden contract that allowed this manager to receive a significantly higher salary than publicly reported.
Additionally, the Premier League contends that Manchester City did not adhere to UEFA’s financial fair play regulations for five years.
Man City Inquiry Result Odds
When discussing what the punishment will be for Man City, we have several options to choose from.
| Man City FC Inquiry Result |  |  |  |
| Points Deduction | +100 | +100 | +100 |
| Fined | +250 | +250 | +250 |
| Expulsion from Premier League | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Trophies Rescinded | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Club Folds | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Guardiola Faces Prison Time | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
Everything is at stake, and the potential penalties are limitless. The commission has the authority to impose any punishment they deem appropriate.
Under Premier League regulations, possible consequences include a deduction of points, a financial fine, or even expulsion from the league entirely.
The hearing for Manchester City was rescheduled for September 16, moving it up from its initial November start date.
The independent commission’s formal hearing is anticipated to last about 10 weeks. During this time, the Premier League and Manchester City will present extensive legal arguments to support their positions.
Man City's 115 alleged rule breaches case could drag on beyond end of the season. Hearing not due to be completed until mid-Dec + judgement + possible appeal could take months.https://t.co/bDf8SAZO5c
— Martyn Ziegler (@martynziegler) November 27, 2024
After the hearings, the independent commission will review all the evidence and deliberate on their decision. Due to the extensive number of charges and the amount of information to process, this deliberation could span several months.
As a result, the commission’s decision may not be publicly announced until March or later. However, the conclusion will be made public as soon as it is finalized.
Points deduction
The first option we will discuss is a points deduction.
There is recent history of the Premier League docking points from clubs.
Last season, Everton received a 10-point deduction for violating the Premier League’s profit and sustainability regulations. After the club appealed, the deduction was reduced to 6 points.
In addition to Everton, Nottingham Forest was penalized four points for violating financial regulations. This type of penalty seems like the most likely outcome for Man City.
While it’s likely that Man City will appeal their punishment, the Premier League docking them points at +100 odds is a safe bet, and I would make it.
Fined
Will Man City get fined by the Premier League over these allegations? This is where it gets more interesting, as the odds of Man City being fined are +250.
The implied probability of a +250 odds is a little over 28 percent. This feels low, considering Man City’s history with fines.
Man City has been fined just over 2 million pounds by the Premier League for violating rules regarding kick-offs and restarts after half-time in matches 22 times over the past two seasons.
The club has acknowledged these breaches and consented to paying the Premier League’s fine.
Like the points deduction, I expect an appeal from Man City, but the evidence seems to point to them being fined again. +250 odds feel like tremendous value and is another bet I would make.
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Expulsion from Premier League
There is even discussion and speculation that if Man City is found guilty they may even be expelled from the Premier League.
No club has been expelled from the Premier League before the end of the season in which they have been relegated.
Pep Guardiola has responded to Arne Slot's joke about the 115 charges Man City are facing 🗣️https://t.co/lvDWIvSMmP pic.twitter.com/OID4LGnEVn
— Mirror Football (@MirrorFootball) December 4, 2024
Man City has consistently denied any misconduct both prior to and following the charges from the Premier League, asserting that they have a “comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence” to back their stance and “look forward to this matter being put to rest once and for all”.
It’s very difficult to imagine a scenario in which Man City is actually expelled. Hence, the odds being set at +1600 for this outcome. +1600 odds indicate an implied probability of a little more than 5 percent.
Despite not having all of the information available, I would not make this bet. It seems very unlikely that Man City is kicked out of the Premier League.
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