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- What: 2025 Capital One Orange Bowl
- Who: Notre Dame vs. Penn State
- Date: Thursday, January 9, 2024
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- How to Watch: ESPN, ESPN+
The College Football Playoff Semifinal game, the 2025 Orange Bowl, takes place on Thursday, January 9, at Hard Rock Stadium in Florida. The annual NCAA bowl game features a matchup between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Notre Dame wrapped up the 2024 NCAA football season as the No. 7 team, while Penn State was the No. 6 squad. The winner of this game moves on to face the winner of the Cotton Bowl matchup between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns in the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship.
Notre Dame opened the College Football Playoffs with a 27-17 win over Indiana. The Fighting Irish followed that with a 23-10 win over the No. 2 ranked Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. Notre Dame last won a national title in 1988.
Penn State began its playoff journey with a 38-10 win over SMU. The Nittany Lions followed that with a 31-14 victory over the No. 3 Boise State Broncos in the VRBO Fiesta Bowl. Penn State’s most recent national championship came in 1986.
Notre Dame and Penn State have played 19 times. The teams are 9-9-1. The last meeting between the schools took place in September 2007 in State College, Pennsylvania. Penn State won that game 31-10.
Before we look at the betting odds, picks, and predictions for the 2025 Orange Bowl between Notre Dame and Penn State, check out our best NCAA football betting sites and where you can find the betting odds for the 2025 national championship.
2025 Capital One Orange Bowl betting picks
| To Win 2025 Orange Bowl |  |  |  |  |
| Notre Dame | -135 | -135 | -135 | -131 |
| Penn State | +115 | +115 | +115 | +107 |
| Over 46.5 Points | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Under 46.5 Points | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
2025 Capital One Orange Bowl: Notre Dame betting breakdown
The Notre Dame offense averaged 406.6 yards per game this year, with 189.1 of those yards coming via passing and 217.5 on the ground. The offense averaged 37.7 points per game. The team’s points per game on offense were fourth most in the nation, trailing only Miami, Indiana, and Ole Miss. Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard had 2,383 passing yards with a 66.5 completion rate to go with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions. The team’s leading rusher was Jeremiyah Love, with 1,076 yards on 148 carries. Love picked up 16 touchdowns. The leading receiver on the Fighting Irish was Beaux Collins, with 458 yards on 37 catches and three touchdowns.
The defense of the Fighting Irish was one of the best in the country this year, allowing just 13.6 points per game, which was second only to Ohio State (12.1). Notre Dame allowed 295.6 yards per game, with 167.4 of those coming in the air and 128.2 on the ground. Jack Kiser led the team in tackles with 75, while Xavier Watts had the most interceptions on the club with six.
In their playoff game against Georgia, the Notre Dame defense held their opponent to 62 rushing yards in the game and had the Bulldogs going 0-3 on fourth down conversion attempts. Strong defense, opportunistic offense and special teams will be the key to the Irish getting by Penn State.
2025 Capital One Orange Bowl: Penn State betting breakdown
The Penn State offense was No. 3 in the Big Ten with 436.3 yards per game. The team’s 234.1 passing yards per outing put it in the middle of the conference, while the Nittany Lion’s rushing average of 202.2 yards per game was No. 1 in the conference. Penn State averaged 33.7 points per game on offense. Quarterback Drew Allar had 3,192 passing yards and a completion percentage of 67.4, with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Kaytron Allen was tops on the club in rushing with 1,026 yards on 201 carries. Nicholas Singleton also had over 1,000 yards (1,015) on 157 carries. Tyler Warren was the team’s best receiver, with 1,158 yards on 98 catches.
On defense, the Nittany Lions allowed the fourth fewest yards per game in the Big Ten with 288.8. The team gave up 187.9 yards in the air and 100.9 on the ground while surrendering 15.8 points per game. Jaylen Reed had the most tackles for Penn State with 92 while also leading the team in interceptions with three.
Penn State needs its running game to remain hot against Notre Dame. The Nittany Lions had 216 yards on the ground against SMU.
Best Bets: 2025 Capital One Orange Bowl
With Penn State relying heavily on the rush and Notre Dame being so strong on defense, the betting pick is for Notre Dame to beat Penn State in the Orange Bowl.
The Notre Dame defense has allowed 17 points or fewer in 11 of 13 outings this year. The team’s defense is for real. Look for that trend to hold in this game. The betting pick is for Notre Dame and Penn State to combine for under 46.5 points in the Orange Bowl.
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