- What: UFC 311 Main Event
- Who: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2
- Date: Saturday, January 18, 2025
- Location: Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN2), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The first pay-per-view card on the UFC schedule in 2025 takes place on Saturday, January 18, when the promotion heads to the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, for the first time. That fight card, UFC 311, is headlined by a lightweight title fight between UFC champion Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan. The 2025 meeting between these two is a rematch of a 2019 “Fight of the Night” bonus-winning contest that Makhachev won via unanimous decision. Here is some background on the fighters before we look at the betting breakdown of the UFC 311 main event.
Islam Makhachev (26-1) has defended the UFC lightweight title three times. He is the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the official UFC rankings and is unbeaten in his past 14 fights. Seven of his past eight wins have come via finish, including his most recent tile defense, a June submission win over Dustin Poirier.
Arman Tsarukyan (22-3) is the No. 1 fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings. He is on a four-fight winning streak, and his most recent victory came in April when he defeated former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira via decision.
Before we look at the best bets for Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan 2 on the UFC 311 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC 311 main event: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2 betting picks
To WIn UFC 311 Main Event | |||
Islam Makhachev | -275 | -270 | -275 |
Arman Tsarukyan | +235 | +220 | +235 |
UFC 311 main event: Islam Makhachev betting breakdown
The defending UFC lightweight champion is often compared to his mentor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and that makes sense. Islam Makhachev uses the same style as the ex-champ, but by no means is he a carbon copy of Nurmagomedov. Makhachev’s striking has improved a great deal since his early days with the UFC, as evidenced by his first-round knockout win over Alexander Volkanovski in October 2023.
Makhachev is incredibly comfortable on the feet, but that’s not where the champion is at his best. No, Makhachev is one of the best grapplers in the game right now. He has a heavy top game, and he’s always looking to advance his position and secure a submission. If that’s not in the cards, he can be active with his striking on the mat. His takedowns per fight might be low, but that’s because once he gets his foe on the ground, they are usually stuck there until the round ends.
In his first matchup against Tsarukyan, Makhachev handled himself well on the feet, while being the better wrestler as well.
Makhachev lands 2.65 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 59 percent. He only absorbs 1.54 significant strikes per minute, and his striking defense is 61 percent. The champion picks up 3.19 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a success rate of 53 percent. Makhachev’s takedown defense is 90 percent.
UFC 311 main event: Arman Tsarukyan betting breakdown
Arman Tsarukyan is a wrestler first. He has developed a competent striking game but usually uses that striking to serve his grappling. He dominates on the mat and is an incredibly heavy fighter when he lands in top position. Tsarukyan does an excellent job of using his footwork to set up his strikes and takedowns. Tsarukyan could be a future UFC champion, in that he is a well-rounded fighter who is adding pieces to his arsenal with each outing and developing the skills where he might be lagging.
Tsarukyan’s win over Beneil Dariush was his first victory over a ranked opponent, but his win over Oliveira solidified him as the No. 1 ranked fighter in the division.
Tsarukyan has good ground striking, but sometimes, he can struggle to keep fighters on the mat. Before the Oliveira fight, Tsarukyan had never had an opponent lock up a submission against him. Oliveira registered four submission attempts, but Tsarukyan held off the former champ.
In his first meeting with Makhachev, Tsarukyan initiated takedowns but did not have much success in that department. He could change his attack in the rematch and look to land with kicks from distance.
Tsarukyan lands 3.79 significant strikes per minute with a success rate of 48 percent. His striking defense is 53 percent, and he absorbs 1.84 significant strikes per minute. The challenger averages 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a takedown success rate of 37 percent. His takedown defense is 75 percent.
Best Bets: UFC 311 main event – Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2
The first meeting between these two was a fast-paced affair, with both fighters at the top of their games. Both men have improved since then, so expect another spirited affair. However, Makhachev is just the better all-around fighter, and I don’t see anywhere that Tsarukyan can bridge the talent gap between them.
The betting pick for the UFC 311 main event is for Islam Makhachev to defeat Arman Tsarukyan via decision or via a late submission.
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