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- What: UFC Vegas 101 Main Event
- Who: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas 2
- Date: Saturday, January 11, 2025
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET), Main Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN+
The first card on the UFC schedule for 2025 is UFC Vegas 101, which takes place on Saturday, January 11, 2025, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. In the main event of that card, Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas revisit their meeting in October 2019. Ribas won that matchup via decision, handing Dern the first loss of her young MMA career. Ribas’ win in that UFC Fight Night card moved her record to 8-1. The fight was Ribas’ second for the UFC and Dern’s third for the promotion. Today, Dern is the No. 6 ranked competitor in the official UFC strawweight rankings, while Ribas is No. 8 in the 115-pound weight division. Here is some additional background on Dern and Ribas before we look at the betting breakdown of the UFC Vegas 101 main event.
Mackenzie Dern (14-5) bounced back from the loss to Ribas with four straight wins. Since then, the 31-year-old grappling ace has been up and down, putting together a record of 3-4. Dern is coming off an August decision victory over Loopy Godinez.
Amanda Ribas (13-5) is 5-4 since her win over Dern. Also 31, Ribas has alternated wins and losses over her past eight fights and is coming off a unanimous decision defeat to former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas at 125 pounds.
Before we look at the best bets for Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas 2 in the UFC Vegas 101 main event, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC Vegas 101 main event: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas 2 betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |
| Amanda Ribas | -168 | -170 | -168 |
| Mackenzie Dern | +142 | +140 | +131 |
UFC Vegas 101: Mackenzie Dern betting breakdown
If Mackenzie Dern ever hopes to earn a UFC title shot, she must win this fight. Dern is an incredibly talented grappler with multiple Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu accolades to her name. Still, she has yet to develop her takedown game, which often prevents her from fighting to her strengths. Dern went one for seven in takedown attempts in her two recent losses. Her overall takedown success under the UFC banner is a dismal 16 percent. While Dern has not developed her wrestling, she has come a long way in her striking since her early days with the UFC. The problem on that front is that she doesn’t possess much power in her striking, and she can be drawn into a firefight against a fighter with more power and accuracy.
Dern’s best bet in this fight is to get the contest to the mat; however, in the first meeting between these two, she was unable to land a single takedown on Ribas on six attempts, and Ribas was the one who had the advantage in ground control time.
Dern lands an average of 3.43 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 39 percent. She absorbs an average of 4.12 significant strikes per minute, and her striking defense stands at 51 percent. Dern’s takedown defense is 51 percent.
UFC Vegas 101: Amanda Ribas betting breakdown
Amanda Ribas is a very aggressive fighter. She uses forward pressure and high striking output to put her opponent on their back foot. Her striking, which she mixes up well, using punches and kicks, mainly to the head and legs, could be more crisp and technical. However, Ribas’ goal is not to score a knockout but to close distance and create opportunities for takedowns. Ribas is good on the ground, using top pressure, strikes, and submission techniques to rack up control time and prevent her opponent from scoring with the judges. One of the intangibles that helps Ribas succeed is her will to win. She never quits, and she is always looking for the finish. Ribas also has good cardio, which allows her to overwhelm opponents who might not be ready to go the distance.
If there is a fault in Ribas’ game plan, it is that her striking defense needs to be improved. She doesn’t have good head movement and often leaves her head on the center line, making her an easy target for strikes. If Ribas can keep moving forward with high output, this fight is hers to lose because Dern’s defensive striking is lacking, and she does not respond well to pressure.
Ribas lands 4.63 significant strikes per minute, with a 40 percent striking accuracy. She absorbs 3.40 strikes per minute and has a defense of 61 percent. Ribas averages 2.07 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 51 percent accuracy. Her takedown defense is 88 percent.
Best Bets: UFC Vegas 101 main event – Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas
The key to this fight for Dern is to get it to the mat, but her lack of takedown success makes that unlikely. As for Ribas, she has the advantage in striking output and pressure. If Ribas can keep Dern backing up and land with volume, she should be able to pick up the win. However, with five rounds to work, there’s always a chance that Dern will get a submission.
The betting pick is for Amanda Ribas to beat Mackenzie Dern via decision, but there is betting value in picking Dern for the submission upset victory.
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