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- What: UFC Tampa Main Event
- Who: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley
- Date: Saturday, December 14, 2024
- Location: Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida
- Time: Prelims (7:00 p.m. ET), Main Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN2 and ESPN+
UFC Tampa, the final fight card on the 2024 UFC schedule takes place on Saturday, December 14 from Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. In the evening’s main event, former interim UFC welterweight champion Colby Covington returns to the Octagon for the first time since then-UFC 170-pound champion Leon Edwards defeated him via decision in the main event of UFC 296 in December 2023. Covington looks to stop Joaquin Buckley’s charge up the UFC welterweight rankings. Buckley dropped to the 170-pound weight class in May 2023. He is 5-0 since then with three knockouts and two decisions. We look at the betting breakdown of the UFC Tampa main event.
Colby Covington (17-4) is the No. 6 fighter in the UFC’s official welterweight rankings. He is 2-3 in his past five outings with each of those losses coming in title fights. The 36-year-old Covington has only fought once per year since 2020.
Joaquin Buckley (20-6) is ranked No. 9 in the UFC’s welterweight division. The 30-year-old is 3-0 so far in 2024. His most recent victory was an October knockout victory over former two-time UFC title challenger Stephen Thompson.
Before we look at the best bets for Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley on the UFC Tampa fight card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC Tampa main event: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |
| Joaquin Buckley | -225 | -245 | -230 |
| Colby Covington | +190 | +205 | +176 |
UFC Tampa: Colby Covington betting breakdown
The book on Colby Covington has stayed the same over the years. The former interim champion is relentless with his wrestling offense and striking output. He has outstanding cardio and impressive chain wrestling. Covington’s ability to get his foes to the mat and control them on the ground with a heavy top game and unrelenting strikes make him a dangerous fighter in any 25-minute contest. The problem with Covington as of late is that he hasn’t had much success with his takedowns. In his three recent losses, Covington went two for 21 in takedown attempts. If Covington fails to get the fight to the mat, his striking is usually not enough to get him the nod from the judges because he is not a very heavy-handed fighter. He struggles to rack up the requisite damage on the feet to impress the judges.
Another thing to worry about when it comes to Covington is not his long layoff since his last outing, but his age. Fighters at welterweight and above tend to slow down once they reach 35. Covington turns 37 in February.
Covington lands 3.88 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 38 percent. His striking defense is 55 percent, and he absorbs 2.98 significant strikes per minute. Covington averages 3.79 takedowns per 15 minutes with a success rate of 44 percent. His takedown defense is 67 percent.
UFC Tampa: Joaquin Buckley betting breakdown
Joaquin Buckley has been with the UFC since 2020. He is in the midst of the longest winning streak of his UFC career, with five consecutive wins. He spent most of his career with the UFC at middleweight, but his drop to welterweight has worked out well for him.
Buckley has a lot of speed, good movement, and he packs a lot of power in his strikes, and despite packing a lot of muscle on his 5-foot-10 inch frame, he has solid cardio. His move to 170 pounds has suited him well. Buckley is comfortable on the feet. He usually focuses on the head and body of his opponent while putting together combinations when he commits to the striking game. Buckley is also unafraid to mix in takedown attempts to keep his foe on their toes. He employs lateral movement and uses feints to keep his opponent from getting a bead on him. His power will be the biggest factor in this matchup.
Buckley has never gone five rounds in his UFC career.
Buckley lands 4.13 significant strikes per minute, with a success rate of 36 percent. He gets hit, on average, 3.20 times per minute, and his striking defense is 57 percent. As for grappling, Buckley lands 1.96 takedowns per minute with a success rate of 46 percent. His takedown defense is 69 percent.
Best Bets for UFC Tampa main event – Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley
The question one has to ask themselves ahead of this fight is if Colby Covington is declining or if he had an off night last year against Leon Edwards. If you believe it was an off night, then a pick for Covington to win via decision makes sense. If you’re like me and believe that Covington is on the backside of his career, the pick is Joaquin Buckley to win.
The betting pick is Joaquin Buckley to beat Colby Covington by knockout at UFC Tampa.
See below the top sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
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