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- Buffalo (13-4) is a 9-point home favorite over Sean Payton’s Denver Broncos (10-7)
- Josh Allen passed for 3,731 yards with 40 combined touchdowns in 2024
- The Wild Card Weekend matchup kicks off from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY on Sunday at 1 pm ET on CBS
Sean Payton and rookie quarterback Bo Nix have the Broncos in the postseason for the first time in nine years. However, Denver is a huge road underdog to a Bills team that’s hosted and won a Wild Card game at Orchard Park in each of the past four years. Led by NFL MVP frontrunner Josh Allen, Buffalo has a perfect 8-0 record at home this season.
Before we look at the odds for Sunday’s first Wild Card matchup, check out our best NFL Playoff Betting Tips and find the top betting sites for NFL football 2025.
Bills vs Broncos
 | Spread | Money Line | Total Points |
| Denver Broncos | +9.0 (-112) | +395 | Ov 47.5 (-110) |
| Buffalo Bills | -9.0 (-108) | -500 | Un 47.5 (-110) |
Josh Allen for NFL MVP?
Josh Allen is a slight favorite to win his first NFL MVP award after passing for 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns with another 531 yards and 12 scores on the ground. James Cook also thrived in the Bills’ high-powered attack, rushing for 1,009 yards with a career-high 18 total touchdowns.
Amari Cooper only has two touchdowns since being acquired at midseason. But, with Khalil Shakir, rookie Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid, Josh Allen will have plenty of options to attack Denver’s top-notch defense.
.@danorlovsky7 is rolling with Josh Allen as his NFL MVP favorite ✍️ pic.twitter.com/BWZat421eM
— First Take (@FirstTake) January 6, 2025
Broncos back in playoffs
Bo Nix completed 26-of-29 passes for 321 yards with four passing touchdowns in a playoff-clinching 38-0 victory over the Chiefs on Sunday. The 24-year-old finished the campaign with 34 offensive TDs, the third-most by a rookie in NFL history.
Can Nix lead Denver to a stunning victory over a Bills squad making its sixth consecutive playoff appearance? Well, the Broncos upset Buffalo 24-22 on Monday Night Football in Week 10 of last year with Russell Wilson, so Sean Payton has the recipe to orchestrate an upset.
Buffalo vs Denver
Buffalo is a 9-point home favorite at Highmark Stadium, where they are a perfect 8-0 this season, and the over/under is set at 47.5 points. Joe Brady’s Bills offense is averaging the second most points per game in the NFL (30.9) on the strength of a balanced offense that ranks #9 in both passing and rushing.
However, Josh Allen will be up against a Broncos defense allowing 18.3 PPG (#3 in the league). Denver is also #3 against the run, allowing only 96.4 rushing yards per game, but their passing defense ranks in the bottom half of the NFL.
BO NIX GOES OFF IN A MUST-WIN GAME TO SEND DENVER TO THE PLAYOFFS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 2015 SEASON 🔥
What a debut season from the rookie 👏 pic.twitter.com/tRGW2N7Uc5
— ESPN (@espn) January 6, 2025
Best Bet
While Sean Payton has to be credited for getting Denver in the playoffs for the first time since 2015, the Broncos only managed one win over a playoff team all year (the Buccaneers in Week 3), excluding their victory over Kansas City’s backups in Week 18.
We’ll take Josh Allen and the Bills (-9) in a blowout on Sunday with the OVER 47.5.
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