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- Who: Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia
- What: Undisputed Super Middleweight World Championship
- Date: Saturday, May 4, 2024
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
- How to Watch: Amazon Prime Video
On May 4, during Cinco de Mayo weekend, undisputed super middleweight world champion Canelo Alvarez puts his 168-pound titles on the line against the unbeaten Jaime Munguia at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Alvarez is the top-rated fighter in the super middleweight division, while The Ring has Munguia at No. 5 in the division. Below is some background information on the two Mexican fighters before we look at the betting breakdown for the upcoming undisputed middleweight title fight. The matchup marks the first all-Mexico undisputed championship fight since March 1972, when Rafael Herrera stopped Ruben Olivares in the eighth round to win the Ring, WBC, and WBA bantamweight championship.
Canelo Alvarez (60-2-2 with 39 knockouts) is coming off three straight unanimous decision title defenses against Gennady Golovkin, John Ryder, and Jermell Charlo following his May 2022 loss to Dmitry Bivol in a light heavyweight title fight. That loss was Alvarez’s first setback since he dropped a majority decision to Floyd Mayweather in 2013. Alvarez’s win over Ryder came in May 2023.
Jaime Munguia (43-0 with 34 KOs) has yet to taste defeat in his professional career. A former WBO light middleweight champion, Munguia is coming off a January 2024 ninth-round TKO win over John Ryder in defense of his WBC Silver super middleweight title.
Before looking at the betting odds and picks for Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia, check out the best boxing betting sites and where you can find the best boxing picks.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |
| Canelo Alvarez | -550 | -650 | -700 |
| Jaime Munguia | +375 | +400 | +350 |
Canelo Alvarez betting breakdown
The undisputed super middleweight world champ, Canelo Alvarez, has been facing the best of the best for a long while. In fact, his 2013 loss to Floyd Mayweather came a few months after Munguia’s first pro fight.
At 33, Alvarez has started to slow, which is not a shock considering how long he’s spent at the top of the boxing world. Even though Alvarez is not throwing or landing as many punches as he once did, his counterpunching abilities and his capacity to exploit openings make him one of the scariest fighters to compete against.
Jaime Munguia is an aggressive boxer, and that could help Alvarez. The champ has a stellar boxing IQ, and he’ll be able to find the openings that the challenger gives him in this fight. Munguia defense is not the best in the 168-pound division. That’s something Alvarez will take advantage of.
Alvarez is the better boxer. He is a more complete, skilled, experienced, and powerful fighter. He might not have Munguia’s flash, power, and speed, but he doesn’t need those things these days because of his boxing IQ.
Jaime Munguia betting breakdown
The fight that might have earned Jaime Munguia this matchup was his recent knockout win over John Ryder, a fighter who went 12 rounds against Alvarez in May 2023. A lot will be made of the fact that Alvarez didn’t finish Ryder, but he did dominate the fight over 12 rounds. With that, the better question is, what did Alvarez take from the 35-year-old Ryder before he faced Munguia a few months later?
At 27, Munguia is younger than Alvarez, but his youth and undefeated record could be a hindrance in this matchup. Munguia is a pressure fighter. He moves forward and attacks, throwing his punches with power and looking for the knockout. That style could prove problematic against a fighter like Alvarez, who relies on openings and counters to break his foes over the course of battle.
Munguia must be ready for the body shots that will come his way. If he can handle those blows early and keep moving forward with aggression, speed, volume, and power, Munguia could surprise many boxing fans on May 4. However, Munguia has shown openings in his defense, and that’s not great against Alvarez.
Best Bets for Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia
Jaime Munguia might be a substantial betting underdog in this matchup, but he is a live dog, especially if he comes out fast and establishes the pace of this fight. With his power, speed, aggression, and age, there is a chance that Munguia can pull off an upset. With the odds being what they are, a value bet for Munguia to win via decision or knockout is a wager that must be considered. However, the betting pick is for Canelo Alvarez to retain his undisputed super middleweight title in this contest with a decision win. A knockout by Alvarez in the second half of the fight is also a wager worth considering.
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