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Naoya Inoue and Sam Goodman will meet in Tokyo in a Christmas Eve showdown. Inoue is the undisputed super-bantamweight champion, and he is a heavy-betting favorite to defend his title when he meets unbeaten Aussie Sam Goodman. Read on for our fight preview, where we name our winner and our boxing betting picks.
- Who: Naoya Inoue vs. Sam Goodman
- What: Undisputed Super Bantamweight Title – 12 Rounds
- Where: Ariake Arena, Tokyo, Japan.
- When: Tuesday, December 24th, 2024
- Ring Walks: 4 am onwards ET
Naoya Inoue is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet. The unbeaten Japanese star has a 28-0 professional fight record, with 25 wins by knockout.
You're watching a master at work 👑🇯🇵 @NaoyaInoue_410 | #InoueNery pic.twitter.com/FpyNPxTtcI
— Top Rank Boxing (@trboxing) May 6, 2024
When he defends his belts against Goodman, it will be his third defense in a single calendar year. Inoue will also be seeking a 10th successive stoppage win.
Sam Goodman has a professional fight record of 19-0. The 26-year-old Aussie has won eight fights by knockout, with 11 wins by decision. The upcoming Tokyo showdown will be the first time Goodman has boxed outside of his Aussie homeland in his professional career.
Naoya Inoue vs. Sam Goodman Betting Odds
Naoya Inoue is the overwhelming favorite to win the fight with the best boxing betting sites. On the money line, Inoue is -2500, with Sam Goodman at +900.
On the total line, under 7.5 rounds is the favorite at -130, with over at +110.
The money line is a no-go area. There is no value in backing Inoue at those odds. So we are instead looking at the props for the fight. Starting with the method of victory:
- Naoya Inoue to win by KO/TKO/DQ -600
- Naoya Inoue to win by decision +600
- Sam Goodman to win by KO/TKO/DQ +1400
- Sam Goodman to win by decision +2500
- Draw +2500
The bookmakers can clearly only see Inoue winning by knockout (-600), as every other option is heavy odds against. Again, a win by KO looks too short to back at -600.
There are plenty of round-group betting options.
Starting with four groups, the fight is +500 to end in rounds 1-3, +225 to end in rounds 4-6, +200 to end in rounds 7-9, and +350 to end in rounds 10-12. Odds of +550 are available on the fight going the distance.
For three groups of rounds, the fight is +330 to end in rounds 1-4, +140 to end in rounds 5-8, and +220 to end in rounds 9-12.
Finally, +140 is available on the fight ending in rounds 1-6, and -105 on the fight ending in rounds 7-12. Again, the fight is +550 to go the distance.
For the main betting market, check out our boxing odds table. All our odds are provided by our recommended boxing betting partners, which we use for our boxing picks.
| Inoue vs. Goodman |  |  |  |
| Naoya Inoue | -2500 | -2500 | -2500 |
| Sam Goodman | +900 | +900 | +900 |
| Over 7.5 Rounds | +100 | +100 | +100 |
| Under 7.5 Rounds | -130 | -130 | -130 |
Fight preview
Already this year Naoya Inoue has beaten Luis Nery by a 6th-round knockout in May, and TJ Doheny by a 7th-round TKO in September.
A third win inside a calendar year would be unprecedented. Furthermore, it is also Inoue’s fourth fight in just 13 months. The Japanese fighter also defeated Marlon Tapales by a 10th-round KO at this same venue last December.
The last time Naoya Inoue was taken the distance was in November 2019. That was in the 19th contest of his 28-fight career, and Nonito Donaire was the opponent to manage to do it. Donaire lost by unanimous decision.
Since that win, Inoue has stopped his next nine opponents. Three were in rounds 1-6, with the other six stoppages coming in rounds 7-12. One of the opponents in that run of fights was Donaire, this time he was defeated by a 2nd-round TKO as Inoue set the record straight in June 2022.
Sam Goodman made his professional debut in 2018, defeating Worawatchai Boonjan by a 2nd-round TKO. Goodman won the vacant Australian featherweight title against Nort Beauchamp in his 9th fight in June 2021.
Goodman has continued to impress and defeated TD Doheny by unanimous decision in his biggest fight to date in March 2023.
Since the win over the Irishman, Goodman has recorded wins over Ra’eese Aleem (split decision), Miguel Flores (unanimous decision), Zhong Liu (UD), Mark Schleibs (TKO), and in July, his most recent win came against Chainoi Worawut by unanimous decision.
Best bets for Naoya Inoue vs. Sam Goodman
In May, Sam Goodman made the trip to Tokyo to watch Inoue defeat Luis Nery and try to secure his shot at the undisputed champion. It worked, and Goodman will get his chance on Christmas Eve.
Unfortunately for Goodman, it looks like it won’t result in a win for the Australian. It would take the most optimistic of extremely optimistic Goodman fans to believe the challenger can pull off the boxing shock of the century.
We are not backing Naoya Inoue to win on the money line, absolutely no way. Instead, we are backing the fight to end in rounds 7-12.
The reasons: Six of Inoue’s last nine wins came in the second half of the fight; and Sam Goodman is also a durable boxer, prepared to dig and show heart, and we see him making it to the second half of the fight.
See below our list of the best offshore sportsbooks for US bettors in 2024 and choose the one that suits you best:
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