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The 2024 Formula 1 roadshow is in Central America this weekend for the Mexican Grand Prix. Charles Leclerc is the in-from driver having won in Austin on Sunday. And with Max Verstappen and Lando Norris battling it out for the Drivers’ Championship, this weekend’s race promises to be another spectacular showdown. In our latest Formula 1 betting picks, we tell you who to get your money on.
- What: 2024 Mexican Grand Prix – Round 20
- Where: Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, Mexico City, Mexico
- When: Sunday, October 27th, 2024
- Time: 3 p.m ET
- Laps: 71
- Track Length: 4.304 km
- Race Distance: 305.354 km
There are now just five races to go in the F1 season. And unlike the previous two campaigns, everything is still up for grabs.
In Austin last weekend, Max Verstappen edged closer to securing this season’s world title. The Dutchman won the Sprint on Saturday. He then fought tooth and nail to hold off the challenge of Lando Norris in the Grand Prix on Sunday.
Norris did pass Verstappen on the road. But his move was deemed illegal, and his resulting five-second time penalty saw Norris lose third place – and vital championship points – to Verstappen.
A big moment in the race and potentially the season 😮
Norris overtakes Verstappen but picks up a 5-second penalty for passing off track ✋#F1 #USGP pic.twitter.com/y1DFXGde0U
— Formula 1 (@F1) October 20, 2024
The combination of points Verstappen gained from the Sprint and the Grand Prix saw the world champion extend his lead over Norris in the Drivers’ Championship to 57 points.
Verstappen is now on 354 points, with Norris on 297. In the latest betting, Verstappen has been cut to -450, with Norris drifting to +300. Ahead of the US race, Verstappen was -175 and Norris was +135.
It felt like a pivotal race in Austin. But there are still 146 points to play for, so this particular battle might not be settled just yet.
Betting to win the 2024 Mexican Grand Prix
Moving onto Sunday’s race from Mexico City, the best Formula 1 betting sites have a three-way split at the top of the betting to win the Mexican Grand Prix.
After his dominant win in Austin on Sunday, Charles Leclerc is the joint-favorite at +260, along with Max Verstappen and Lando Norris.
Carlos Sainz and Oscar Piastri are +800, with George Russell at +1800 and Lewis Hamilton at +2000.
Driving in his home race, Red Bull No.2 driver Sergio Perez is +4000 to win his first race of the season.
Keen to make an impression last year, Perez crashed out on the first corner. This disappointment came after he managed 3rd place in 2022 – what the under-pressure Mexican driver wouldn’t give for a repeat of his 2022 performance this weekend with all the speculation surrounding his place at Red Bull for the 2025 season.
Full 2024 Mexican Grand Prix betting can be found on our F1 odds table. All our odds are taken from the best sites for F1 betting. You can read more about them on our How to Bet on Formula 1 online page.
| Driver |  |  |  |
| Lando Norris | +260 | +260 | +260 |
| Max Verstappen | +260 | +260 | +260 |
| Charles Leclerc | +260 | +260 | +260 |
| Oscar Piastri | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Carlos Sainz | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| George Russell | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Sergio Perez | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Alex Albon | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Lance Stroll | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Liam Lawson | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Guanyu Zhou | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
Teams taking risks that can backfire as pressure builds
A word of caution is required here. Ahead of the race in Austin, Lando Norris was +100, Max Verstappen +450, and Charles Leclerc was +650. No one saw Ferrari’s dominant win coming in the US. And this is because it’s very hard to know which cars are going to suit which circuits.
Furthermore, all the teams are introducing upgrades. Ferrari’s upgrades worked in the US, as did Red Bull’s.
McLaren claimed their car struggled in Austin. But to contradict that view, Norris was still faster than Verstappen’s Red Bull in the latter half of the race and Norris even started the Grand Prix from the pole position – although McLaren did acknowledge they wouldn’t have been able to compete against Ferrari across the 56-lap race.
One team that didn’t benefit from their upgrades was Mercedes. The so-called improvements introduced by Mercedes to Lewis Hamilton’s car were a disaster. The seven-time world champion spun out of the race on his second lap, showing that at some circuits, upgrades can make cars worse.
It’s a risky game the teams are playing at this late stage of the season. But with both the Drivers’ Championship and the Constructors’ Championship looking set to go the distance, all the teams look set to continue playing this form of Russian Roulette as they try to gain that small edge over their rivals that can be the game-changer.
Our 2024 Mexican Grand Prix betting picks and predictions
After their strong showing in Austin last weekend, the bookmakers are giving Ferrari a real chance of winning in Mexico City.
Furthermore, Charles Leclerc has finished 1st, 5th, 2nd, 1st, and 3rd in his last five races. Upgrades or no upgrades, that is consistency from the Ferrari No.1 driver.
We expect to see money come in for Leclerc. It’s not often he starts a race week as the favorite. But such was Ferrari’s form in the previous race, it’s impossible to ignore them.
One final point to make is that Red Bull and McLaren seem to be fighting their own battle. Could this leave the door open for Ferrari to sneak through again in Mexico?
Verstappen and Norris were so focused on each other at the start of the race in Austin, that they seemed to forget about the rest of the cars. This makes any Ferrari (+160) to win the Mexican Grand Prix look like the best wager to place on this weekend’s race. Backing any Ferrari also covers us if Carlos Sainz wins the race.
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