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The 2024 F1 season resumes this weekend with the United States Grand Prix from the Circuit of the Americas. Lando Norris is the driver in the ascendancy. But Max Verstappen has a 52-point lead at the top of the Drivers’ Championship and is the favorite in the latest Formula 1 futures betting.
- There are six races left in the 2024 Formula 1 season to decide the Drivers’ Championship
- Max Verstappen leads the Drivers’ Championship from Lando Norris. Verstappen is the favorite to hold out for the win
- McLaren is the new leader of the Constructors’ Championship. The British-based team is -1400 to win the title
Both F1 Championship still up for grabs
With just six races to go in the 2024 Formula 1 season, both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships are still in the balance.
At the start of the season, who would have predicted that would be the case after 18 rounds of action?
Back then, most expected the gap to close on Red Bull, but not enough to see Max Verstappen not win the driver’s title and Red Bull the constructor’s.
But thanks to the performance of the McLaren team, we finally have a contest in both championships.
McLaren is the team in the ascendancy. They have the fastest car and Lando Norris is the favorite to win the US Grand Prix when the final quarter of the season resumes on Friday (we have already made our US Grand Prix betting picks for the race winner).
Lando Norris also won the previous race in Singapore. The British driver’s win was his third victory of the season. More significantly, Norris beat Verstappen into second place by 20 seconds. It was as easy a win as you could expect to see.
Can Verstappen respond and win enough points to hold off the charge from Norris? Let’s see what the bookmakers think.
Betting to win the 2024 F1 Drivers’ Championship
Max Verstappen has been the favorite to win the F1 Drivers’ Championship all season. But, in recent weeks his odds have been lengthening as Lando Norris closes in on him at the top of the Drivers’ Championship.
Ahead of the US Grand Prix, Verstappen sits on 331 points. Norris has 279. Verstappen holds a 52-point lead.
The Formula 1 betting sites still have Max Verstappen as their betting favorite. But he is now just -175, having been -4500 earlier in the season. Lando Norris is +135.
It’s probably irrelevant, but Charles Leclerc is +3300, and Oscar Piastri is +5000.
| Driver |  |  |  |
| Max Verstappen | -175 | -175 | -175 |
| Lando Norris | +135 | +135 | +135 |
| Charles Leclerc | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Oscar Piastri | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
Can Red Bull get Verstappen over the winning line?
The winner of a Formula 1 race gets 25 points. Second gets 18, and third gets 15. So theoretically, even if Lando Norris wins every race, Max Verstappen can still win the championship if he keeps finishing second.
Also resuming this weekend in Austin are the F1 Sprint races. In this format, the winner gets 8 points, and second place gets 7. One-point increments see the driver finishing in eighth place getting one point.
Including Austin, there are three Sprint races left in 2024. So again, if Verstappen finishes second to Norris in all three races, the triple-world champion will still win enough points to win a fourth-world title.
We all know that such a sequence of results is highly unlikely. But what it does tell us is that as long as Verstappen can finish within one place of Norris in the remaining six races, it should be enough to win the championship.
Stick or twist for Red Bull?
Where does this leave Verstappen and Red Bull from a tactical perspective?
Red Bull has introduced a series of upgrades to its car ahead of the resumption this weekend. But it is unrealistic to expect these upgrades to make the car 20 seconds faster – the distance they were behind the McLaren in Singapore.
So will the Red Bull plan for the rest of this season be to attack Norris? Or will they look to cling onto his coattails and hope the more inexperienced driver makes enough mistakes between now and the end of the season to see Verstappen hang on for the win?
A lot will depend on how the Red Bull upgrades turn out. And we have to wait until the race in Austin to find out how effective – it at all – they will be.
For now, the bookmakers seem to have got the odds right. But if Norris romps to victory on Sunday. He could well become the favorite.
It looks like a 50/50 call on who will win the championship. So we would recommend a small wager on Norris as he has the better odds. If the odds flip, you can then cover if you wish.
Betting to win the 2024 Constructors’ Championship
The Constructors’ Championship has already flipped on its head in favor of McLaren.
The British team took the lead after a strong showing in Round 17, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
Oscar Piastri won the race in Baku. His teammate Lando Norris was fourth. Max Verstappen was the highest-placed Red Bull in fifth.
Ahead of the US Grand Prix, McLaren has 516 points and Red Bull has 475. Furthermore, third-placed Ferrari (441 points) is closing in on Red Bull.
In the betting, McLaren is now just -1400 to win the Constructors Championship. Red Bull is second at +800, and Ferrari third at +2500.
| Constructor | | |  |
| McLaren | -1400 | -1400 | -1400 |
| Red Bull | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Ferrari | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Mercedes | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
McLaren has two drivers scoring points heavily in every race. Ferrari has two drivers consistently scoring points as well. Red Bull has one. Verstappen’s teammate Sergio Perez hasn’t been producing the goods for weeks now.
The Constructors’ Championship looks like a done deal. McLaren is going to win. As for Red Bull, their battle is now with Ferrari for second place. And we can see the legendary red cars taking second place from the defending champions.
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