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Let’s examine the year-end price of the popular cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Cardano, and Ethereum.
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Bitcoin end of 2024
| Bitcoin End of Year |  |  |  |
| Over $72000.50 | -200 | -200 | -200 |
| Under $72000.50 | +150 | +150 | +150 |
Over the past week, Bitcoin has experienced a 4% rise, currently trading at $69,872. However, this remains below the oddsmakers’ target of $72,000.50 by year’s end.
Let’s evaluate its performance this year before deciding whether to short Bitcoin or invest further.
Bitcoin has shown significant growth in the last month, rising nearly 5%. When we look at its year-to-date performance, the positive trend continues.
Throughout 2024, Bitcoin has seen impressive gains, with an overall increase of 57%, translating to a surge of more than $25,000 in value this year.
"This is a very bullish setup for bitcoin into the election. We saw the exact same pattern in 2020 where bitcoin lagged with low volatility and then once a winner was announced, we had a high vol rally as new buyers come into this market," says @matthew_sigel of @vaneck_us. pic.twitter.com/EcIzPAGAq0
— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) October 28, 2024
Bitcoin has been hot this past month and is nearing its peak value for the year.
For a few days in March, it reached the $73,000 mark, which makes this number set by oddsmakers very intriguing.
However, if you take into account all of its best days, Bitcoin has only closed above the $70,000.50 price for less than a month in the past year. Oddsmakers are bullish on Bitcoin despite much evidence.
-200 odds imply a probability of 66%, and Bitcoin is trading much higher than it did at this time last year. That being said, the Under is priced at +150 odds.
I disagree with the oddsmakers and recommend fading Bitcoin. The price will continue to fluctuate before the year ends, and it doesn’t seem likely that it will end the year at its peak value.
The Under offers better value at +150 odds and is the best bet regarding the year-end price of Bitcoin.
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Cardano (ADA) End of 2024
The next market we will examine is the end-of-year price for Cardano.
| Cardano End of Year | | | |
| Over 40.5 cents | -120 | -120 | -120 |
| Under 40.5 cents | -120 | -120 | -120 |
Oddsmakers are using a price point of 40.5 cents for Cardano by the end of the year. Discussing the price of Cardano at the end of the year will require some projection.
🔥 INSIGHT: Merging Cardano smart contracts with #Bitcoin could “revolutionize the next generation of finance,” says @F_Gregaard, CEO of the Cardano Foundation. pic.twitter.com/hx9UjnqSUy
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) October 28, 2024
Cardano is currently trading at .35 cents. It’s been on the downturn for the past year. However, oddsmakers believe it will turn around.
The majority of the past six months it’s been below the .40 cent mark. It’s decreased in value 24% over the past six months. The past month it’s declined 14%, while it’s been in a downswing, it’s only declined 1% in the past week.
While it’s not declining as rapidly, it does seem to be plateauing. This price point intrigues me, because for the first quarter of the year it peaked it at .77 cents in March.
Perhaps oddsmakers are expecting another upswing for Cardano?
It has the same-120 odds on both sides of the prop, so there is little risk to backing Cardano instead of fading it.
In this instance I will agree with the oddsmakers and back Cardano to reach the .40 cents mark before the years end. Over 40.5 cents by the end of the year is the best bet.
Ethereum end of 2024
Finally, we will examine the future price of the cryptocurrency Ethereum.
| Ethereum End of Year | | | |
| Over $2800.5 | -120 | -120 | -120 |
| Under $2800.5 | -120 | -120 | -120 |
Let’s examine Ethereum’s recent performance. While the cryptocurrency has experienced a minor decline over the past week, the larger narrative is its significant drop in value over the last month.
Ethereum has declined 6% in the past month and over 20% in the past six months. Despite these recent declines, Ethereum has been profitable this year, actually up 7%.
This seems like conflicting information, which makes speculating on the future price difficult. Oddsmakers have placed a $2800.50 price on it, with identical odds of -120 on both the over and under.
Empire newsletter: The SOL/ETH ratio is at record highs. Memecoin traders are hugely driving network activity, but Solana DEX volume beat Ethereums' for the first time this weekhttps://t.co/AJNYW8xGAQ
— Blockworks (@Blockworks_) October 28, 2024
Ethereum is currently trading at just over $2500. It doesn’t seem very likely for it to reach the $2800 price point, considering it hasn’t reached that number in the past four months.
The best bet for Ethereum is Under $2800.50 at -120 odds.
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