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US Interest Rate Cut at next Fed Reserve meeting
The first market to examine is if the Federal Reserve will provide an interest rate cut for the US.
| Interest Rate Cut |  |  |  |
| No | -220 | -220 | -220 |
| Yes | +155 | +155 | +155 |
Oddsmakers have priced a NO interest rate cut at -220. The implied probability of -220 is about 68%. Let’s examine why oddsmakers are leaning toward a no-interest cut this summer.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it isn’t time yet to cut interest rates, even as inflation continues to slow in the country.
READ MORE: https://t.co/tkZK8hz5Mmhttps://t.co/tkZK8hz5Mm
— Globalnews.ca (@globalnews) July 2, 2024
During his presentation on Tuesday, Powell reiterated his confidence in the U.S. economy and job market, stating that they are in good shape.
This allows the Fed to deliberate on the timing of potential rate cuts with a sense of reassurance.
Many experts anticipate that the Fed will make its first rate cut in September, a move that could potentially be followed by another before the end of the year, signaling significant changes in the financial markets.
I agree with the oddsmakers on this one. They have direct information stating that there will not be an interest rate cut. -220 odds are steep, but it’s the correct outcome.
It’s difficult even imagining a scenario in which something changes to the effect that suddenly flips the decision for the Federal Reserve board.
+155 odds are pretty steep and only indicate an implied probability of 39%. As tempting as the plus-money odds are, it’s best to agree with the oddsmakers.
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Michael Dell to invest in Everton FC
The next market we must explore is the Everton FC purchase. The English football club is rumored to be for sale.
| Michael Dell Everton FC | | | |
| Yes | -500 | -500 | -500 |
The interested party is Michael Dell.
Michael Dell, the founder, chairman, and CEO of Dell Technologies worth an estimated $101 Billion is backing Andy Bell and George Downing’s takeover of Everton. It is believed Dell wants to play a part in returning Everton to its former glory.
(Source – @SkySportsNews ) pic.twitter.com/oE6mJgN29E
— Everton Blue Army (@EvertonBlueArmy) June 7, 2024
Oddsmakers are certain that Michael Dell will make this transaction. There isn’t even an option to bet against them.
The only option is YES at -500 odds. I’m surprised the odds are listed at a higher number, but regardless, it feels like a certainty that this purchase will happen.
Shein value after 1st day of trading
The final market we will explore is the value of Shein on the stock market after its first day of trading.
| Shein Value after 1st Day | | | |
| Under $63.5 Billion | -130 | -130 | -130 |
| Over $63.5 Billion | -110 | -110 | -110 |
It seemed like it would not have any resistance initially, but there is uncertainty regarding the company’s future.
Britain’s financial regulator is urged to block Chinese fast-fashion retailer Shein’s planned blockbuster flotation on the London Stock Exchange due to its alleged use of Uyghur forced labor at some of Shein’s cotton suppliers in China’s Xinjiang region.https://t.co/TIqhgFWqnl
— Kenneth Roth (@KenRoth) June 27, 2024
Oddsmakers have placed odds on the value, and they’re favoring the Under $63.5 Billion option at -130 odds. The Over option is at -110 odds, so there isn’t too much of a difference in pricing.
The latest estimates value the company at around $64 Billion, which is right in line with its estimated value.
The merchant’s popularity could increase the price of the IPO and drive up the company’s value.
I will disagree with the oddsmakers and lean toward the over $63.5 billion option at -110 odds.
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