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- Kansas City (15-2) is a 9-point home favorite over the Houston Texans (10-7) on Saturday
- Patrick Mahomes is a perfect 6-0 in the divisional round of the playoffs in his career
- The AFC Divisional Round matchup kicks off from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 4:30 pm ET on ABC/ESPN
After demolishing the Chargers on Wild Card Weekend, Houston will travel to Arrowhead to face the Chiefs. In search of a Super Bowl three-peat, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and company are well-rested for the AFC Divisional Round matchup after sitting their starters in Week 18 and enjoying a playoff bye.
Can C.J. Stroud and the Texans upset Kansas City and move on to the Conference Championship? Before we look at the odds for Saturday afternoon’s tilt, check out our best NFL Playoff Betting Tips and find the top betting sites for NFL football 2025.
Chiefs vs Texans
 | Spread | Money Line | Total Points |
| Houston Texans | +9.0 (-120) | +375 | Ov 42 (-105) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -9.0 (+100) | -465 | Un 42 (-115) |
Houston destroys Chargers
C.J. Stroud passed for 282 yards with a touchdown and an interception in a dominating 32-12 victory over the Chargers on Saturday, connecting with Nico Collins for 122 yards and a score. Following a quiet end to the season, Joe Mixon came to life on Wild Card Weekend, running for 106 yards and a TD.
DeMeco Ryan’s defense was the story of the game, pressuring Justin Herbert on over 50% of his dropbacks and picking him off four times. (That’s one more interception than Herbert threw all season.) In the Divisional Round for the second year in a row, Houston will look to fare better than last season’s 34-10 defeat to Baltimore.
HERBERT THROWS A PICK-SIX 😳
20 unanswered points from the Texans after going down 6-0 😯
(via @HoustonTexans)pic.twitter.com/iRy43MW2Mq
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 12, 2025
Chiefs rested for 3-peat
Kansas City will enter the Divisional Round on 24 days rest. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and other Chiefs’ stars last laced up the cleats on Christmas Day’s 29-10 beatdown of the Steelers. Defensive tackle Chris Jones should be fully recovered from a strained calf muscle suffered in Week 15, and running back Isiah Pacheco will be ready to roll.
Andy Reid’s club defeated the Texans 27-19 in Week 16. Mahomes passed for 260 yards and a TD while running for 33 yards and a score. Stroud threw for 244 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs. However, his top pass-catcher on the afternoon, Tank Dell (6-98-1), suffered a season-ending torn ACL in the contest.
Kansas City vs Houston
Kansas City is a 9-point home favorite at Arrowhead Stadium and the over/under is set at a miniscule 42 points. Both teams finished middle-of-the-pack in points scored per game. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense was #4 in the NFL in points allowed (19.2) and, as you might recall, took over the postseason last year in the Chiefs’ march to back-to-back Super Bowl titles. KC is top-five in rushing yards allowed per contest (101.8) while the Texans rank #6 in passing yards allowed (201.6).
However, Houston’s defense is peaking at the right time. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. form the league’s most devastating pass-rush tandem, and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. is coming off a two-interception game against the Chargers.
CRAZY: #Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has played in the AFC Championship EVERY SEASON he has been the starter in Kansas City.
🤯
(h/t CBS) pic.twitter.com/2KA4QWBmKd
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) January 13, 2025
Best Bet
We like Houston to cover (+9) with the UNDER 42, but the Chiefs (-465) will once again emerge victorious.
While Mahomes will be under fire from a ferocious pass rush, he’ll be able to generate enough offense to send the Chiefs to their seventh-consecutive AFC Championship Game. A record only topped by the Patriots, who reached eight-straight conference title games from 2011-2018.
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