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- Kansas City is a 2-point home favorite over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday
- Patrick Mahomes is 3-0 all-time versus Josh Allen in the postseason
- The AFC Championship Game kicks off from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 6:30 pm ET on CBS
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will meet in the playoffs for the fourth time in five years. Buffalo has lost three consecutive postseason matchups to their AFC rivals, but they were the only team to defeat Kansas City’s starters this season, coming away with a 30-21 home win in Week 12.
Entering their seventh straight AFC championship game, the Chiefs are only two wins away from orchestrating the first three-peat in NFL history. Can the Bills stop them and earn their first Super Bowl berth in over 30 years? Before we look at the odds for the AFC Championship, check out our best NFL Playoff Betting Tips and find the top betting sites for NFL football 2025.
Chiefs vs Bills
 | Spread | Money Line | Total Points |
| Buffalo Bills | +2.0 (-110) | +110 | Ov 48 (-110) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -2.0 (-110) | -130 | Un 48 (-110) |
Buffalo sneaks by Baltimore
After losing in the divisional round in three straight years, Josh Allen ran for two touchdowns in a 27-25 win over Baltimore on Sunday to earn a spot in the Conference Championship. The Bills took a two-possession lead at halftime thanks to an early Lamar Jackson interception and a fumble in the backfield. The Ravens almost tied the game with an 88-yard drive in the fourth-quarter, but Mark Andrews dropped the two-point conversion in the endzone.
Allen led Buffalo to a 30-21 home victory over the Chiefs in Week 12, passing for 262 yards and a TD with 55 rushing yards and a score. With the win, Allen is 4-4 in head-to-head meetings with Patrick Mahomes. Yet, he’s dropped all three playoff matchups, including the infamous “13 seconds” game in January 2022.
Josh Allen is playing the cleanest football of any QB in NFL HISTORY
This season he has the lowest pct of plays with a sack, fumble or INT (4.2%) since the merger
(incl. playoffs, min. 500 plays) pic.twitter.com/xtvWMTzGKO
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 20, 2025
KC’s defense leads the way
Patrick Mahomes won his eighth straight playoff game despite only passing for 177 yards and a TD in a 23-14 win over Houston. Once again, it was Steve Spagnuolo’s defense that led the Chiefs to victory, sacking C.J. Stroud eight times with 21 QB pressures.
Travis Kelce made seven receptions for 117 yards and a score, surpassing Jerry Rice in the history books with his ninth playoff game with over 100 receiving yards. However, Andy Reid’s offense was unimpressive as always. In fact, KC became the first team in the Super Bowl era to win a postseason game when their opponent outgained them by 100+ yards and committed zero turnovers.
Kansas City vs Buffalo
Kansas City is a 2-point home favorite at Arrowhead Stadium, where they are 9-0 in the regular season and playoffs combined, and the over/under is set at 48 points. Patrick Mahomes tossed two interceptions while being held under 200 yards in Week 12’s loss to the Bills. Buffalo had a league-best +24 turnover differential during the season and benefitted from a +3 turnover differential in their divisional round win over Baltimore.
Led by Chris Jones, George Karlaftis and Trent McDuffie, the Chiefs limited opponents to just 18.9 points per game this season (#3 in the NFL). But, Allen is one of the few quarterbacks who can move the ball against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. In his last two games against KC, Allen’s run for 127 yards and 3 TDs so expect him to use his legs.
Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs:
2021 AFC title game: KC 38-24 BUF
2022 AFC divisional: KC 42-36 BUF (OT)
2024 AFC divisional: KC 27-24 BUF
2025 AFC title game: ??? pic.twitter.com/iFAEpfNxa5— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) January 20, 2025
Best Bet
Kansas City is on a 15-game winning streak in games decided by one score or less. Can the Chiefs keep getting away with it and punch their ticket to another Super Bowl?
We don’t think so. We’ll take Josh Allen and the Bills to cover (+2) and win (+110) the AFC Championship, with the UNDER 48.
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