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- Detroit (13-5) is a 6-point home favorite over the Buccaneers (10-8) in the Divisional Round
- Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield are one step away from the NFC Championship Game after being cast off by their former teams
- Sunday afternoon’s NFL playoff game kicks off from Ford Field at 3:00 pm ET
After winning their first playoff game in 32 years, the Detroit Lions have a chance to advance to their first NFC title game since their 1957 championship run. Standing in their way is Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, who thrashed the Eagles 32-9 on Monday night.
Before we check the odds on this NFC Divisional Round matchup and make our picks, here’s where you can find the best tips for betting on the 2024 NFL playoffs and the top betting sites for NFL football.
Lions vs Buccaneers
 | Spread | Money Line | Total Points |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +6.0 (-105) | +230 | Ov 48.5 (-110) |
| Detroit Lions | -6.0 (-115) | -275 | Un 48.5 (-110) |
Unlikely quarterback duel
Jared Goff passed for 277 yards and a touchdown in a 24-23 victory over a Rams franchise that kicked him to the curb following the 2020 season. The 29-year-old avoided the crucial turnovers that plagued his early career, and calmly ran out the clock on Sean McVay with a first-down completion to Amon-Ra St. Brown on the final drive.
Baker Mayfield is an even more surprising addition to the NFC Divisional Round than Goff. In Monday night’s 32-9 blowout win over Philadelphia, the former No. 1 overall pick became the first-ever Buccaneers QB to have 300-plus passing yards and three-plus passing TDs in a playoff game.
Baker Mayfield: the first Bucs QB to ever throw for 300+ yards and 3+ TDs in a playoff game 👀 pic.twitter.com/Lc3Fh558FJ
— PFF TB Buccaneers (@PFF_Buccaneers) January 16, 2024
Lions won last meeting
Detroit came away with a 20-6 victory back in Week 6, outgaining Tampa Bay 380 yards to 251 in the October meeting. Mayfield was limited to just 206 passing yards with an interception while Goff passed for 353 yards and two scores. However, the Buccaneers have claimed six of their past seven games.
Todd Bowles’ defense blitzed on 40% of opponent dropbacks during the season – a number which spiked to 53.8% on Monday night. So, Goff can expect more pressure than he faced against Los Angeles, when he completed all 21 of his pass attempts when not under pressure. The 2nd-most without an incompletion in a game since 2018.
Detroit vs Tampa Bay
Detroit is a 6-point home favorite at Ford Field with the over-under set at 48.5 points. The Lions scored the fifth-most points per game (26.9) this season, ranking third in passing yards (258.7) and sixth in rushing yards (132.8).
Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta surprisingly suited up in Sunday’s win over the Rams, overcoming a knee injury to score a second-quarter TD. Amon Ra St. Brown added seven receptions for 110 yards. And both David Montgomery and rookie Jamhyr Gibbs found the endzone.
How clutch was this @Samlaporta fourth-down score 🙌
Next up: #TBvsDET on NBC pic.twitter.com/lgZtYHF5Pf
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) January 16, 2024
Tough run defenses
Detroit and Tampa Bay both have top-five run defenses, limiting opponents to 87.6 and 92.3 rushing yards per week, respectively. However, the Bucs had the better unit on a whole, allowing just 18.6 points per game versus 23.2 given up by Aaron Glenn’s defense.
The Lions are especially leaky through the air, allowing the third-most passing yards per game (253.4). After giving up 181 receiving yards and a TD to Puka Nacua, Detroit will have its hands full with Mike Evans on Sunday.
Best Bet
With Aidan Hutchison on a three-game multiple-sack streak, the Lions defense will pressure Mayfield into mistakes. Gifted a second home game thanks to Dallas’ upset loss to the Packers, Detroit will cover the points (-6) and advance to their first NFC Championship Game in over a half century.
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