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- Detroit (15-2) is a 9.5-point home favorite over the Washington Commanders (12-5) on Saturday night
- Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 162.3 total yards in the final three games of the season with 6 combined touchdowns
- The NFC Divisional Round matchup kicks off from Ford Field in Detroit, MI at 8:00 pm ET on FOX
Jayden Daniels led his fifth game-winning drive of the season to close out the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round. The presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year will now head to the Motor City to face Dan Campbell’s Lions. At 15-2, Detroit tied with Kansas City for the best record in the NFL. But their injury-riddled defense may be hard pressed to stop Washington’s electric rookie quarterback on Saturday night.
Before we look at the odds for the Divisional Round matchup, check out our best NFL Playoff Betting Tips and find the top betting sites for NFL football 2025.
Lions vs Commanders
 | Spread | Money Line | Total Points |
| Washington Commanders | +9.5 (-116) | +430 | Ov 55 (-110) |
| Detroit Lions | -9.5 (-104) | -535 | Un 55 (-110) |
Daniels cool under pressure
Jayden Daniels passed for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 23-20 victory over Tampa Bay on Sunday night, leading Washington to its first playoff win since the 2005 season. After coming up short on four straight goal-to-go plays, the rookie QB found Terry McLaurin for a go-ahead score in the fourth quarter. The Buccaneers tied the game, but Daniels evaded a sack and scrambled for 4 yards on third-and-2 to set his team up for a game-winning field goal.
Dan Quinn’s defense also came to play, limiting Baker Mayfield to just 185 passing yards after he averaged 264.7 (4th in NFL) during the regular season. The Commanders will now be tasked with stopping Jared Goff, who finished third in the league with 272.3 passing yards per game.
Jayden Daniels when trailing vs the Buccaneers
🧊 16/23
🧊 172 total yards
🧊 2 TDs
🧊 0 INTs pic.twitter.com/gNFyTqT1hq— PFF (@PFF) January 13, 2025
Lions offense at full strength
David Montgomery is expected to return in the Divisional Round after missing the last three games of 2024 with a knee injury. The Lions should be hesitant to take Jahmyr Gibbs off the field, however. The sophomore RB averaged 162.3 total yards in the final three games of the year with 6 TDs. In the final game of the season, Gibbs helped his club clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with 170 combined yards and 4 scores in a 31-9 win over Minnesota.
Detroit’s offensive coordinator Ben Johnson spurred the Commanders in their coaching search last offseason. His explosive offense led the NFL with 33.2 points per game.
Detroit vs Washington
Detroit is a massive 9.5-point home favorite at Ford Field, where they were 7-2 this season, and the over/under is a humongous 55 points. In addition to Ben Johnson’s No. 1 scoring offense, Washington finished #6 at 28.2 points per game. Both teams have top five running games, averaging around 150 yards per game on the ground. Jared Goff leads the NFL’s #2 passing attack (263.2) while the Commanders ranked #17 (218.5 YPG).
Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn blitzed Sam Darnold on 56% of Minnesota’s drop backs in the regular season finale. But he’ll need a different gameplan against Daniels, whose scrambling ability makes his one of the best QBs in the league against the blitz.
Top TD scorers in 2024:
1. Jahmyr Gibbs (19) pic.twitter.com/sI7jzhtLT8
— NFL (@NFL) January 6, 2025
Best Bet
While Washington slowed down the Buccaneers rushing attack in the Wild Card Round, they allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game (135.4) in the regular season. Detroit also has the NFL’s #4 defense against the run, which will put extra pressure on Jayden Daniels to make plays through the air.
We’ll take the Lions to cover (-9.5) with the UNDER 55.
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