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- Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are +165 co-favorites to be the next Tory leader
- Tom Tugendhat (+550) and James Cleverly (+575) are among the six senior MPs in the race
- The new Conservative leader will be unveiled at the beginning of November following a three-month contest
Following the party’s worst electoral performance since 1832, the United Kingdom’s Conservative Party will replace former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak with one of six candidates this November.
Who will be the next Tory leader? Before we look at the latest odds, here’s where you can find the best 2024 Political Betting Sites and view all our Politics betting picks.
Next Conservative Party Leader
| Politician |  |  |  |
| Kemi Badenoch | +165 | +165 | +165 |
| Robert Jenrick | +165 | +165 | +165 |
| Tom Tugendhat | +550 | +550 | +550 |
| James Cleverly | +575 | +575 | +575 |
| Priti Patel | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Mel Stride | +3000 | +3000 | +3000 |
Badenoch ahead in latest polls
With just under two months to go until the first vote for the party’s next leader, a new YouGov survey of 910 Tory members reveals Kemi Badenoch (+165) as the current frontrunner with 24% of the vote. A favorite of Conservative right-wingers, the former banker and business secretary placed fourth in the 2022 leadership race.
Looking to become the UK’s first black prime minster, Badenoch has pledged to rebuild the party by 2030. The 44-year-old Brexit backer is “anti-woke” and says “capitalism isn’t a dirty word.”
⏳ Kemi Badenoch in 60 seconds. pic.twitter.com/AXJ0gVjQA8
— Michal Kurzdym – Conservative Party Member (@Michal_K_Tories) August 26, 2024
Jenrick’s move to the right
Robert Jenrick is a +165 co-favorite despite finishing fourth in the same YouGov survey of Conservative members, claiming only 12% of the vote. Once a close ally of Rishi Sunak, the 42-year-old has captured supporters by moving further and further to the ideological right.
Promising to win back Reform UK voters, the former immigration minister will no doubt put immigration at the heart of his campaign.
Stay away from the favorites?
Keep in mind it’s still relatively early in the three-month leadership race. After the six candidates are whittled down to four, they will make their pitch at Conservative Party MPs. Two candidates will then move forward to the membership, with plans to unveil the new Tory leader at the start of November.
‘I was overweight. I did try Ozempic for a period of time, it didn’t suit me.’
Conservative leadership candidate Robert Jenrick reveals he took Ozempic last year to help him lose weight. pic.twitter.com/Van2WbfUHJ
— Good Morning Britain (@GMB) August 28, 2024
Other Tory contenders
Tom Tugendhat (+550) came in second in the recent YouGov poll, grabbing 16% of the vote. A leading Tory moderate, the former security minister is an Iraq and Afghanistan war veteran. Somewhat hilariously, he had to change his campaign slogan, “Together we can, Unite the party. Rebuild trust. Defeat Labour”, because the initial letters spelled “Turd”.
James Cleverly (+575) claimed 14% of the Conservative Party vote in the YouGov survey. In head-to-head polls, he was also shown to have the best chance to defeat Badenoch, trailing by nine percentage points. The former foreign secretary and party chairman has broad appeal to the Tory base as a moderate who also supported Boris Johnson’s government to the bitter end.
Best Bet
While Priti Patel (+1400) and Mel Stride (+3000) are viewed as longshots for a reason, momentum for James Cleverly (+575) could pick up if he’s able to displace Tugendhat and coopt his support among moderates.
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