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- The 2024 presidential election takes place on November 5
- The Democratic party has won the popular vote in the past four presidential elections
- The most recent Republican to win the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004
The race to become the next President of the United States is in full swing. This year, the Democrats pit current Vice President Kamala Harris against former President Donald Trump who represents the Republicans. Trump won the 2016 Presidential election with 304 votes from the Electoral College, but he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton. Clinton received 48.2 percent of the popular vote to Trump’s 46.1 percent. In 2020, Joe Biden was named president with 306 electoral college votes. Biden also won the popular vote, receiving 51.4 percent of the votes to Trump’s 46.9 percent.
The last time a Republican nominee won the popular vote was in 2004, when George W. Bush received 50.7 percent of the votes. His opponent in that race, John Kerry, got 48.3 percent of the votes. Bush lost in 2008 to Barack Obama. The popular vote in that race favored Obama 52.9 percent to 45.7 percent.
Before we look at the betting odds, picks, predictions, and breakdown for the popular vote for the 2024 election, here’s where you can find the best 2024 Political Betting Sites and view all our latest Politics betting picks.
2024 U.S. presidential election popular vote betting picks
| Party of Popular Vote Winner |  |  |  |
| Democratic Party | -115 | -400 | -500 |
| Republican Party | -105 | +275 | +300 |
Kamala Harris popular vote betting breakdown
At least one prognosticator is predicting Kamala Harris will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election by a landslide, and that person is Thomas Miller, a data scientist from Northwestern University. Miller does not use polls to make his predictions. Instead, he looks at betting markets or what he called, prediction markets, in a talk with Newsweek.
“A political prediction market is a leading indicator of what will happen in an election. People are putting their money down, which means they believe something’s going to happen in the future,” said Miller. “The prediction market says, ‘Who do you expect is going to win?’ There’s a lot of research to justify that the prediction markets are more effective as forecasters than polls.”
Miller’s initial modeling predicted a win for Trump, but that model saw a shift as soon as Biden dropped out of the race and Harris became the Democratic nominee. The presidential debate of September 10 also helped Harris according to Miller.
Miler’s model predicted the 2020 election correctly,
Donald Trump popular vote betting breakdown
Former president Donald Trump might not win the popular vote, but he could still become the president because he is currently leading in the polls in several battleground states over Harris. With that, Trump is the betting favorite to carry the Electoral College vote. Overall, the McCourtney Institute for Democracy sees Trump getting 45 percent of the popular vote to Harris’s 48 percent.
Trump’s appeal is strongest when it comes to the economy and immigration. Trump inherited an economy on the upswing when he entered office. The economy continued to thrive during the early stages of his presidency as an average of 181,500 jobs were added every month through February 2020. In addition, the unemployment rate was around a 50-year-low of 3.5% percent before the pandemic began. Also, the unemployment rate for Black Americans hit a record low of 5.3 percent while Trump was in office (that number dropped to 4.8 percent in April 2023). The median household income increased to a four-decade high, reaching $68,700 in 2019. Meanwhile, the poverty rate fell to a record low of 10.5 percent. As for stocks, a bull market continued through Trump’s presidency.
As for immigration, the Republican party has made that one of its primary focuses in this campaign, hitting Biden and Harris for being soft on immigration.
Best bet to win the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election
While the Electoral College will name the candidate who will serve as the U.S. president, the popular vote is something that many U.S. voters watch and care about. The betting pick to win the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election is Kamala Harris and the democratic party.
See below the top offshore sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
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