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- The 2024 U.S. presidential election takes place on November 5, 2024
- The Democratic party has won the popular vote in the past four presidential elections
- The Electoral College vote has gone to the Democrats and Republicans three times each since 2000
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is days away. This year, the Democrats pit current Vice President Kamala Harris against former President Donald Trump, who represents the Republicans. Trump won the 2016 Presidential election with 304 votes from the Electoral College, but he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton. Clinton received 48.2 percent of the popular vote and Trump got 46.1 percent. In 2020, Joe Biden was named president with 306 electoral college votes. Biden also won the popular vote, receiving 51.4 percent of the votes to Trump’s 46.9 percent. The presidential candidate who reaches 270 of the 538 electoral votes wins the 2024 presidential election.
The closest election since 2000 came in 2000 when George W. Bush defeated Al Gore by getting 271 electoral votes to Gore’s 266. Bush lost the popular vote that year, 50,999,897 votes to 50,456,002 or 48.4 percent to 47.9 percent. This year’s race, between Harris and Trump, looks like it could be one of the tightest elections since Bush’s victory in 2000.
Before we look at the betting odds, picks, predictions, and breakdown for the Electoral College vote for the 2024 election, here’s where you can find the best 2024 Political Betting Sites and view all our latest Politics betting picks.
2024 U.S. presidential election betting picks
| To Win 2024 Presidential Election |  |  |  |  |
| Donald Trump Sr. | -200 | -210 | -210 | -210 |
| Kamala Harris | +170 | +180 | +175 | +170 |
Kamala Harris betting breakdown
According to Allan Lichtman, a historian and professor at American University, Kamala Harris will prevail on November 5. Lichtman has picked nine of the 10 most recent presidential elections correctly. The one election pick he got wrong was Bush vs. Gore in 2000.
“My system is based on history and yes, history could conceivably change but you wouldn’t know it until afterward,” Lichtman said.
“The way it works is six of my 13 keys have to go against the White House party and I only have four going against them — mandate based on U.S. House elections, incumbency, foreign policy failure because of the disaster in the Middle East and incumbent charisma,” Lichtman added before saying barring a “catastrophic” incident he would be sticking with his pick of Harris to defeat Trump.
According to the most recent 538/ABC News poll, Harris is favored 48.1 percent over Trump’s 46.7 percent.
Some other positive news for Harris is that she has the lead over Trump in “blue wall” states of Michigan (48 percent to 43 percent), and Wisconsin (51 percent to 45 percent). The two candidates are tied in Pennsylvania, according to CNN.
Donald Trump betting breakdown
Economist Christophe Barraud is picking Donald Trump to win the 2024 presidential election. Barraud is a French economist. He is the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco. Bloomberg has ranked Barraud as the top forecaster of the US economy for 11 of the last 12 years.
“Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: Trump victory, GOP clean sweep,” Barraud wrote on X.
In addition to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, there are four other states that are important in this year’s presidential election. Those states are North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. Nevada is currently leaning toward Harris, while Trump holds the advantage in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. Trump won in North Carolina in 2020, while Biden carried Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada in electoral college votes.
Best bet to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election
While Harris is the betting favorite and pick to win the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election, the electoral college vote is a toss up, with Trump currently being the betting favorite to win. The odds are good that Pennsylvania will be the deciding state in 2024. Pennsylvania has gone to the Democrats in five of the six most recent elections. However, the one time the Republicans carried the state was in 2016 when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton.
The betting pick is Kamala Harris to win the 2024 presidential election.
See below the top offshore sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
Sports Betting Sites 