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Atletico Madrid, sitting just two points behind their city neighbors Real Madrid atop the table, host Villarreal this weekend. The hosts have had a marvelous season under Diego Simeone’s loyal tutelage, dropping just two matches on the year. In fact, they are undefeated at home this term. Read on to explore an expert Atletico Madrid prediction vs Villarreal and explore stats and tips for Atletico vs Villarreal.
- LaLiga
- Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal CF
- Saturday, January 25, 2025
- 10:15 AM PM EST
- Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain
- ESPN+, Fubo, ESPN Deportes
Atletico Madrid Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?
Atletico Madrid are odds-on favorites to bounce back and get into the win column this weekend. Atleti are priced at (-139). The visiting Villarreal are available to back for a victory at (+369). The draw is lined at (+317).
La Liga 
Atletico Madrid -139 -145 -145 Villarreal +369 +360 +360 Draw +317 +310 +310
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about La Liga betting odds.
Can Atletico Madrid Win La Liga?
5th in the Champions League, 2nd in La Liga, and through to the quarterfinals of the Copa del Rey. Diego Simeone has outdid himself at Atletico this season, with his cherished club playing some of their finest soccer in recent years. It has been reminiscent of Atleti’s La Liga-winning campaign in 2020-21. Real Madrid’s early bumps at the beginning of the year have kept the club in contention through January.
A hallmark of Atletico Madrid’s success this season has been their stout backline. No Spanish club has allowed fewer goals than Atletico’s 13 concessions. Their defensive prowess is what is keeping them in the title race despite the overwhelming firepower of Hansi Flick’s Barcelona or Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid. Oddly, that success has not bled into their European duties, but Atletico has still managed to win five of their seven games in the competition so far.
In other club news, Simeone’s interest in Fabio Silva has increased considerably, and an invitation to Madrid could be in the works this summer. Silva’s strong performance with Las Palmas against Atletico Madrid impressed the former Spanish international. His finishing shined brightly against Barcelona and Real Madrid as well, leading to a likely Wolves sale as the club braces for relegation to the Championship.
Julian Alvarez was the savior for Atletico this midweek against Leverkusen. Down a man and a goal, Alvarez scored a brace to complete an impressive comeback against last year’s Europa League runner-ups. Inquiries from Man City fell apart, and now Simeone believes Alvarez will end up in “a special place” with the club. Alvarez mentioned that the game was probably the biggest of this career to date.
Villarreal Hoping for European Qualification in 2025
Villarreal is faced with a tough decision as they prepare for one of their biggest matches of the season. A chance to spoil Atletico’s party and steal points on the road could pay huge dividends towards staying in the coveted European qualification positions. But Luiz Junior has shone in place of the injured goalkeeper Diego Conde. The Brazilian keeper was picked up from Portuguese side Famalicao in a club record-breaking deal for the position.
Fans will have to keep an eye on the lineups as they are released the hour before kickoff to see who Villarreal’s boss decides to go with. Early indications, based on Marcelino Garcia Toral’s comments about Conde’s ability to speak the local language, has me expecting Conde will receive the nod. At any rate, the defense has played well enough in the past couple games that ability in the final line of defense may be an afterthought.
Indeed, Villarreal has conceded just once in the last two games, a strong recovery after a porous winter spell. Before Monday’s match against Mallorca, Villarreal allowed goals in every game since early November. That included a pitiful performance against Pontevedra in the Copa del Rey. Villarreal were knocked out in just the second round by the fourth-tier club after losing 1-0.
Atletico Madrid Prediction vs Villarreal: Free Betting Pick
Atletico Madrid faces several disadvantages in this match. Villarreal, having not qualified for European competition, have enjoyed a much less demanding schedule than their hosts. Additionally, Clement Lenglet and Javi Galan will not be available for selection.
Despite the key absences of Lenglet and Galan at the back, I believe Reinildo and Robin Le Normand should serve as suitable replacements. My projections have this match going under 2.5 total goals 51.84% of the time, good for an implied line of (-108). Considering the total is set at a flat number of 3, there is clear value on betting the under in this matchup.
The line has already moved from an opening price of (-105) to (-120), so sharps have likely been favoring this side of the number. I think the Yellow Submarine will find it difficult to score at the Metropolitano. Atletico may also be feeling a bit fatigued after just playing on Saturday. In fact, neither side has more than five days of rest. Go with under 3 goals at (-120), currently available at BetUS.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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