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The day has arrived for the historic Derby della Madonnina, known to many as the Milan Derby, as Milan takes on Inter. AC Milan have undergone a change in leadership, with Sergio Conceicao replacing his Portuguese counterpart Paulo Fonseca. Meanwhile, Inter has the opportunity to take charge of the Scudetto race with a win and a Napoli loss, who play away to Roma this week. Continue reading for an expert Milan Derby prediction and explore stats and tips for Inter Milan betting.
- Serie A
- AC Milan vs Internazionale
- Sunday, February 2, 2025
- 12 PM EST
- San Siro, Milan, Italy
- Paramount+, Fubo, FOX Deportes
Milan Derby Odds from Top Online Sportsbooks
Milan are technically the home side and will have more supporters’ privileges at the San Siro this weekend, but Inter are the favorites. The Nerazzurri are right around even money at (+101) to win in regulation. The hosts are (+288) to win their third match in a row against Inter. A draw pays out at (+260).
Serie A 
Milan +288 +275 +275 Inter +101 -105 -105 Draw +258 +260 +260
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about Serie A betting odds.
Busy Week Ahead for Conceicao & Co.
Milan have had an eventful season, and last week’s game was a microcosm of their trials and tribulations. Milan are on the outside looking into the top 6, representative of the spots needed for European qualification in 2025. After their underwhelming start, manager Paulo Fonseca saw his last days in Milan end prior to the Supercoppa Italiana. That meant Sergio Conceicao enjoyed the fruits of Stefano Pioli’s labor and finished the job.
Indeed, Milan’s place in the 4-team playoff tournament came courtesy of their runner-up finish in 2023-24 earned by Pioli. Conceicao immediately won his first two games in charge, including the Milan Derby tie with Inter in the final. That comeback performance was not unlike their win over Parma last Saturday, coming back from 2-1 down in the 80th minute. Now the club is only five points behind Lazio for fourth place.
With just one loss (away at Juventus) under the tutelage of Conceicao, things are looking up for the Milanese. There is a strong sense of good aura around the team. I mean, how could there not be after beating your rivals, hoisting silverware midwinter, and losing just once in your last 11 matches? Milan will have a chance to build on their good vibrations with this week’s Milan Derby along with a Coppa Italia quarterfinal against Roma.
But a January soccer breakdown would not feel right without some transfer rumors. Milan have been in talks with Feyenoord for Santiago Gimenez. The striker could prove useful for a Milan side uncharacteristically disappointing in attack this season. But Tottenham also have their eyes on the 22-year-old Mexican international, whose strong form peaked with a brace against Bayern in the Champions League last week.
Inter Closing in on Silverware in 2025
Inter seemed to have plugged their defensive holes after back-to-back clean sheets in the last week. A home draw against Bologna, which saw them conceded twice, along with conceding to Empoli at home were concerning signs for a side that is typically watertight at the back. But meetings with Sparta Praha and Lecce, both on the road, proved fruitless for their hosts. Their defensive might will be tested in Milan again when they face Monaco this Wednesday and AC Milan this Sunday.
The Canadian Tajon Buchanan seems to be making his way out of Giuseppe Meazza as rumors swirl about his potential loan to Villarreal. The defenseman hasn’t made a mark with Internazionale after his arrival from Club Brugge. Canada national team manager Jesse Marsch stated to the media Buchanan told him he wanted to play somewhere he would get more time on the pitch. If Inter does wish Buchanan farewell, reports suggest they will aim to acquire a wingback in his stead.
Running a back three, Inter must have a solid crop of wingbacks to turn to in case of injury or fatigue. As one of the best clubs in Europe, Inter play frequently and in many cases last deep into tournaments, leading to a congested schedule that demands a lot of capable bodies available on the bench. It is understood that Inter do not consider four wingbacks alone sufficient, although a suitable candidate is yet to be determined.
Milan Derby Prediction: Free Inter Milan Betting Pick
Milan’s improvements under Conceicao are real. They have looked much sharper and more confident, and even a bit feistier, Conceicao’s postgame row with Davide Calabria being Exhibit A. But Inter is altogether a different animal than most of the clubs they have played. And when faced with above-average defenses, their attacking quality has dipped. Juventus kept Milan scoreless, and Cagliari and Girona held them to just one goal.
Despite the thrills of Milan’s last match with Parma, I expect Sunday’s affair to be cagey and low-scoring. Milan’s home defense is underrated and Inter may have the best defense on the continent. But I think from a betting perspective, the value leans heavier on Milan’s inability to score than Inter’s.
To add to the fact, this is not a “true” home game in the sense that Inter are not traveling anywhere. This is the same ground they call home, just a bit redecorated as their shared hosts get the honors for the Milan Derby this weekend. My projections indicate a team total of under 0.5 total goals for Milan should be priced at (+132). Most books have this in the (+175) range.
But BetOnline is offering a price of (+205) to see Inter pull off a clean sheet this weekend. I think this is the play to make, but there is plenty of value on the under 2.5 goals if you prefer a less risky play. I envisage a 1-0 or 2-0 Inter victory, so take the punt on Milan to fail to score.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
Top Sportsbooks for Inter Milan Betting
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