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Girona and Real Madrid face off this weekend after a busy midweek for the two. Girona performed Copa del Rey duties while Real Madrid visited the Basque region to play Athletic Club. There will be more than three points on the line as well, considering the Catalonia-Madrid rivalry in play. Read on for an expert Girona FC vs Real Madrid breakdown and explore stats for Real Madrid betting.
- La Liga
- Girona FC vs Real Madrid CF
- Saturday, December 7, 2024, 3 PM EST
- Montilivi, Girona, Catalonia, Spain
- ESPN+
Girona FC vs Real Madrid Betting Odds
Girona’s blitzing first half of last season that saw them top of the table around this time last year has not repeated itself. Down to 8th in La Liga, the hosts will be (+390) underdogs this weekend. Their visitors are priced at (-140) to secure the maximum haul. A draw is lined at (+310).
| La Liga |  |  |  |
| Girona | +390 | +387 | +350 |
| Real Madrid | -142 | -141 | -140 |
| Draw | +310 | +305 | +310 |
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about La Liga betting odds.
2024-25 Girona a Far Cry From Last Year’s Version
Girona made a big splash last year with a phenomenal run of form that earned them a 3rd-placed finish. Their overachievements can be partially credited to luck, but there were a few players who really made a big difference. Artem Dovbyk and Savinho both played prolific roles in the firepower of the club who scored 85 goals last season. They are both gone, as is central midfielder Aleix Garcia and winger Yan Couto.
Replacements have been subpar at best. Abel Ruiz, Donny van de Beek, Bryan Gil and Ladislav Krejci entered the mix for Girona this year with mixed results. Their offensive production has nearly halved this time around, with the new foursome all scoring just a couple goals each through 15 games. With the winter transfer window upcoming, it is possible the side will look for more outside help if they cannot break this cold snap.
Their defense has not improved either. Only Villarreal and Osasuna have conceded more goals than Girona in the top half of the table. But a promising away draw to Villarreal last week, coming after three straight league victories, gives Girona fans hope that they can still make a push for back-to-back appearances in European competition. La Liga is one of the higher scoring leagues in the region, so a lack of clean sheets in the competition is not necessarily a cause for concern.
Mbappe Frustrated in New Role at Real Madrid
Mbappe’s introduction to Real Madrid has not come with the triumph and glory many initially expected. One of the world’s most precocious and talented young stars has long sought a position at prestigious Real Madrid. But it is the position within the club’s tactics that is causing immense friction within the locker room.
Earlier this year, I wrote about my concerns regarding Mbappe’s fit in the rotation at Real. The worries were shared by plenty of others, who naturally asked the question “but where will he play?” upon learning of his intent to join Real Madrid. That is because Vinicius Junior, the Ballon d’Or runner-up, occupies the favored left winger position of Mbappe. Manager Carlo Ancelloti chose to slot the Frenchman in the striker role, where he played for France most recently.
But Mbappe’s strengths are in his dribbling and pace from the outside, not in receiving service and holding up play for the rest of his offense. Putting him at striker is truly a waste of talent, and it is showing on the pitch. His struggles have even leaked into his set pieces. Mbappe missed two penalty spot kicks against Athletic Club this Wednesday, costing his team the win.
This is what I wrote about the situation back in August: “If I were Carlo Ancelotti, I would prefer to deploy Mbappe on the wing since he is quicker and more unpredictable than Vinicius. Vini will be happy to play center forward, where he will receive plenty of great support and yet have the option to push left when a gap opens, while Bellingham will be just fine in the #10 position.” My stance on this issue remains the same.
Girona FC vs Real Madrid Betting Prediction and Free Pick
What Girona excels at, and what Real Madrid have struggled with this season, are mutually inclusive. Girona’s high-flying offense has taken a dip in 2024 but is still their bread and butter. And Real has quietly regressed in defensive prowess after arguably boasting the greatest defense in all of European soccer last season.
These trends have opened up some value in the betting markets. While I do not expect Girona to pick up a victory, playing at home will certainly boost their offense. Their form is markedly better at Montilivi than abroad. Real has struggled to contain on their travels, conceding on their last four away trips (excluding the recently-promoted Leganes).
While it is not the most glamorous proposition, the value is on Girona to score multiple goals. They have scored 10 goals in their last 3 home matches in all competitions, yet we are getting over 2:1 odds for them to score at least 2 this weekend. Have some faith in Girona to make things interesting at Montilivi Saturday evening.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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