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In an instant repeat of their matchup from last week, Houston Dynamo takes on Los Angeles FC. Houston’s stunning 2-0 victory shocked fans in Los Angeles. They now have the opportunity to complete the double when they get home. Continue reading for an expert MLS betting preview and explore LAFC soccer stats, tips and a full match breakdown.
- Major League Soccer
- Regular season
- Houston Dynamo vs Los Angeles FC
- Saturday, September 7, 2024, 8:30 PM EST
- MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
MLS Betting Odds: Houston vs LAFC Soccer
The Houston Dynamo are the favorites at (+115) to defeat LAFC in back-to-back games. In this match, LAFC are (+242) to repay the favor and win on the road. Teams would tie after ninety minutes in a draw, in which case the result would be (+275).
MLS 
Houston +104 +105 +115 LAFC +242 +239 +215 Draw +273 +274 +275
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about MLS betting in 2024.
LAFC Soccer Slipping After Leagues Cup Defeat
Over the past week and a half, LAFC has been quite active. After facing the Columbus Crew in the Leagues Cup final, they traveled to play the Seattle Sounders in the U.S. Open Cup semifinal a few days later. They played their third game in a six-day span last weekend against the Houston Dynamo.
Analytically speaking, Los Angeles FC is highly respected by advanced statistics. When it comes to expected goals and expected goals allowed, they are among the best. But things are made more difficult by the arrival of Olivier Giroud recently. The team lost both their comeback to domestic play and the Leagues Cup final. That makes his inclusion in the starting lineup especially disappointing.
In fact, since Giroud made his debut for the team, LAFC has only triumphed once, and that was when they rested the Frenchman. Although Giroud’s massive frame and excellent finishing instincts should be a plus for LAFC soccer on paper, they must quickly get past Giroud’s adjustment period or else they run the risk of falling further down in the Western Conference.
Houston Dynamo at Critical Point in Season
Now that September has arrived, the mid-table MLS clubs will be crunching numbers to figure out what exactly has to happen for them to secure home-field advantage in the MLS Cup Playoffs. Houston, a team that is presently 7th in the West and only 4 points behind Colorado in fourth place with one game remaining, fits directly into that category. Due to their stronger standing, the top 4 seeds in each conference will get to host a potentially decisive match in their best-of-three series against their first-round opponents.
For the Houston Dynamo, this means that the next six weeks are crucial if they want to open the postseason at Shell Energy Stadium and avoid a high seed (like LAFC). One could be forgiven for believing Houston’s home field is more akin to a muddy pit based only on their results. The following are the scorelines of Houston’s previous five official home games: 0-1, 3-0, 0-1, 1-1 and 1-0. That’s just an average of 1.6 goals overall, with two shutouts and two instances where the Dynamo were unable to score themselves.
When Houston plays at home, they usually play at a slower tempo and with greater possession, which LAFC will probably be accustomed to. Los Angeles FC is by far the strongest counter attacking team in the nation, so they won’t mind giving up ball control if they think it would provide chances for them to score quickly. That might easily result in a game that is tied 0-0 or 1-0 well into the second half, with only the dramatic late stages deciding the outcome. That presents us with some value on this Houston vs LAFC soccer match.
MLS Betting Prediction, Free Pick: Houston vs LAFC Soccer
In my opinion, LAFC ought to play closer than they did the previous time around. They accumulated more than one predicted goal, therefore a 2-1 scoreline was a more realistic result. In addition, this was their third game in as many days. However, they have recently suffered a home loss and now have to go to Houston, which puts any professional team in a challenging psychological position.
Even if I think LAFC has some value, I’ll wait since the line is heading in the opposite direction. I will be forced to play if the Los Angeles Draw No Bet line moves to (+160) or higher. However, I’ll concentrate my betting intuition on the total for the time being.
I love the value on the under 2.75 goals here at even money, as my data-driven projections put the under 2.5 at a true line of (-145). In the case of a three-goal game, this amount returns half of our investment, but we are still not paying any juice. Still, it might make sense to wait and see where this line goes. We seem to be attempting to get in front of some steam, which makes me a little more conservative even though I still like the play.
For now, go with the under for just a half unit, especially with Major League Soccer’s higher variance.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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