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Inter Miami hosts Atlanta United with their season on the line this weekend. After falling to Atlanta by an identical scoreline (1-2) in Game Two to their victory in the series opener, there is no certain future for either club past Saturday, November 9. Inter Miami mustered just two shots on target throughout the last game, a figure they certainly must raise if they are to have any serious belief in living up to their lofty MLS Cup odds. Read on for an expert Inter Miami vs Atlanta breakdown and explore stats for the MLS Eastern Conference Playoffs.
- Major League Soccer
- Round One (Game Three) of the MLS Cup Playoffs
- Inter Miami CF vs Atlanta United FC
- Thursday, November 9, 2024, 8 PM EST
- Apple TV
Inter Miami vs Atlanta United Betting Odds
Inter Miami are prohibitive favorites to win the third game of this best-of-3 series and stamp their place in the MLS Eastern Conference semifinals. The Herons are (-237) to win inside the regular 90-minute frame. An Atlanta United upset pays out at (+580), while a draw can be wagered at a market-best price of (+440).
| MLS |  |  |  |
| Inter Miami | -237 | -240 | -240 |
| Atlanta United | +580 | +500 | +500 |
| Draw | +400 | +440 | +440 |
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Inter Miami Struggling As Top Seed in MLS Cup Playoffs
While Inter Miami breezed to the best finish in Major League Soccer history this regular season, their advanced analytics tell a different story. Expected goals numbers for Miami are all average or above-average, but nothing exceptional. While good teams typically outperform their expected goals statistics, even a compensation for that shows Inter Miami are a side arguably less strong than advertised.
This over-estimation has proved true in Round One of the MLS Cup playoffs, in which Atlanta United has covered the spread in both meetings against Miami so far. A close victory in Game 1 (although, admittedly, dominant in terms of xG) led to an upset win for Atlanta in Game 2. Inter Miami’s 12 shots on target in Game 1 were dwindled to just 2 the week after. Interestingly, high-flying Inter Miami has scored just one goal in four of their last seven matches.
Sergio Busquets is set to return to the lineup and could play a big role in the midfield Saturday night.
Atlanta United on the Brink of All-time Upset
Inter Miami’s 2-1 victory in Game 1 of this series was actually their first result against their northern neighbors this calendar year. Indeed, Atlanta United picked up 4 points against the MLS Supporters’ Shield winners. They had one win and one draw during the regular season, the victory actually coming at Chase Stadium. Tata Martino’s former team is seemingly built well to give the Herons plenty of issues.
What makes Inter Miami vulnerable against Atlanta United are their veterans’ disinterest in playing defense. Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez effectively balk at any idea of trying to play a role out of possession. Their lack of pressing, or defense in general, leaves Inter Miami’s back line helpless in quick transition scenarios.
Heavy counter-attacking with numerical advantages and set piece are two major elements that can swing a match in favor of an underdog. Atlanta United prevailed as underdogs against Montreal and did so again at home to Inter Miami. To complete the upset, which would go down as possibly the biggest ever in MLS playoff history, will likely require Atlanta United to achieve both of the highlighted elements. It will help that Stian Gregersen, key defender for Atlanta, is set to return to the lineup after dealing with a hamstring issue.
Inter Miami vs Atlanta Betting Prediction and Free MLS Pick
Atlanta United have made this a real series and Inter Miami supporters should be wary of over-confidence heading into the weekend. If betting odds are any indication (which I obviously believe they are), Inter Miami were (-325) favorites at Chase Stadium in Game 1. As they return for Game 3, they are down to (-240). This is a clear correction from the sportsbooks who believe Atlanta United are more of a live underdog than initially expected.
The last 8 Inter Miami matches have been decided by one goal or less. For Atlanta United, this streak is 9 matches. That makes an asian handicap line of 1.5 immediately pop out to my eyes. We have gone 17 combined matches without an Inter Miami multi-goal win or an Atlanta United multi-goal loss.
Game state can also come into play in this match. Both matches in this series have seen the home team hold onto a one-goal lead late in the second half. A tied scoreline, or a one-goal Inter Miami lead, will prompt much more conservative tactics, ideal for a big spread at 1.5. Last season, 2 of the 3 series deciders were within one goal. However, Atlanta United was the lone exception, bowing out to eventual winners Columbus by a score of 4-2.
My projections indicate a handicap of +1.5 to Atlanta United should be associated with an implied probability of 66.93%, good for a line of (-202). Therefore, Bovada’s offering of (-122) shows significant value. I like this play a lot and will back it for a full unit.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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