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La Liga is entering its sunset phase with just a few months until the final matchday of the 2024-25 season. Real Madrid are the frontrunners to take the title, but Barcelona and Atletico Madrid are right on their tails. Still to be decided is also the top goalscorer of the year and the teams to be relegated from the top division. Read on for an expert La Liga winner bets breakdown and explore La Liga title odds, stats and tips and top goalscorer predictions.
- La Liga
- Top level of Spanish soccer pyramid
- August 17, 2024 to May 25, 2025
- 20 clubs total
- 38 matches for each club
- ESPN+
La Liga Winner Bets: Who is the Favorite?
Real Madrid are odds-on favorites to win the La Liga title this year at (-110). Their two biggest rivals, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid, follow suit at (+350) and (+375). Real Valladolid are all but relegated, with the final two relegation spots still very much up in the air. Espanyol, Leganes, Las Palmas, Valencia and Alaves are all in the danger zone.
La Liga 
Real Madrid -110 -150 -110 Barcelona +175 +350 +185 Atletico Madrid +375 +300 +325 Athletic Club +20000 +10000 +15000 Villarreal +50000 +50000 +40000 Real Sociedad +200000 +50000 +50000 Girona +100000 +100000 +100000 Real Betis +200000 +200000 Celta Vigo +250000 +250000 Rayo Vallecano +300000 +250000 Sevilla +300000 +300000 Osasuna +400000 +400000 Alaves +450000 Getafe +450000 +450000 Mallorca +150000 Leganes +450000 Espanyol +450000 Las Palmas +450000
Want to better understand the soccer futures market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about La Liga betting in 2025.
BetUS Offering Barcelona to Win Title at +350
This year’s La Liga title race is shaping up to be a classic. With three clubs razor-close at the top, it is likely that we will not know the champion of the Primera Division until May 25, the final day of the season. Real Madrid currently lead at 50 points, followed by their city rivals Atletico at 49 points and their Catalonian counterparts Barcelona at 48 points.
Atleti and Real just played each other last weekend, resulting in a 1-1 draw at the Santiago Bernabeu. That completed their scheduled fixtures with two draws. Considering they lost to Barcelona 4-0, a tiebreaker scenario for the title would likely see them lose out to Barca but squeeze past Atletico Madrid on goal difference.
I used a blend of expected points and actual points to forecast the final 2024-25 La Liga table. In my projections, Real Madrid finishes with 81 points, Barcelona 80, and Atletico Madrid 79. However, my model does not account for remaining strength of schedule. That is notable, as Atleti have an easier path ahead than their two competitors.
I could easily see all three of these clubs finishing right around 80 points. Therefore, since all other clubs are far from the top, I would price these clubs evenly, all around the (+200) mark which implies a probability of 33%. But BetUS is offering Barcelona to win the title at (+350). Not only do I believe this is a value play, but it is way off market. Every other top online sportsbook I have seen has Barcelona at around (+175).
Can Atletico Madrid Steal La Liga Title from Real?
If you cannot get Barcelona to win the title at the (+350) number offered by BetUS, Atletico Madrid is the clear value play remaining on the board. Because I believe all three top sides are just about even, there is no value on Real Madrid as odds-on favorites. Barcelona is the club with the most expected points this season, but they took a few unlucky punches after losing Lamine Yamal at the tail end of 2024.
At the market average line of (+175), there is no value on Barcelona. But at (+375), Atletico Madrid is a great side to back. Diego Simeone has his club in excellent form as we head towards the final stretch and is just one point behind the leaders. With favorable matchups against Celta Vigo (home) and Valencia (away) in the next fortnight, their odds will likely only increase.
I believe fading Real Madrid is the best move at the moment, but since I have seen no odds on Real NOT to win, I’d instead look to split your wagers on Barcelona and Atletico Madrid at over 3:1 odds. This is an extremely tight three-horse race, and you will be glad to hold onto some big plus-money tickets by the time May rolls around.
Las Palmas and Leganes to be Relegated in 2025?
“As above, so below” befits not only the laws of the universe but also this year’s La Liga, it seems. While Barcelona, Real and Atleti fight for the title, there are a number of clubs at the bottom fighting to remain in the top division of Spain for another year.
All of Las Palmas, Valladolid, Leganes, Espanyol, Alaves and Valencia are on the chopping block this season. Real Valladolid is nearly assured relegation with just 15 points to date, but the remaining two spots will be contested heavily. According to my projections, Las Palmas and Leganes are the most likely relegation candidates, finishing with an expected 36 points.
But Espanyol could be around there with around 37 projected points, as well as Alaves and Valencia at 39. But we must not only make our predictions but cross-reference them with the odds board to identify value. And in this case, I think Las Palmas and Leganes are being overrated. With odds of (+150), I think they may have some value.
My concern in taking these spots is the remaining strength of schedule bodes well for these two clubs. Therefore, I am passing here, but will be keeping my eyes on the situation as it unfolds in the next month or so.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
Top Sportsbooks for La Liga Title Odds
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