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The final game of the 2024 MLS season kicks off this Saturday in sunny Los Angeles as the Galaxy host the New York Red Bulls. While many pundits expected Inter Miami to come out of the East, it is the 7th-seeded RBNY who managed to upset Columbus in the first round and eventually make it to their second-ever final. Who will hoist the iconic Philip F. Anschutz Trophy this weekend? Read on for an expert MLS Cup Final breakdown and explore stats for LA Galaxy soccer.
- Major League Soccer
- Cup Final
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls
- Saturday, December 7, 2024, 4 PM EST
- Apple TV (free)
MLS Cup Final Betting Odds
LA Galaxy will host the Final, giving them a distinct advantage over their Eastern Conference foes. That leg up is enough to make the side odds-on favorites in the winner-take-all match this Saturday. The Los Angeles-based side is priced at (-120) to win in 90 minutes. The visiting Red Bulls are sizable underdogs at (+310), but as the number 7 seed they have become well-accustomed to being discounted.
A draw is available at (+300). In that circumstance, extra time followed by penalties will follow. Since this is a cup tie (and the final), we have odds for “Lift the Trophy” as well. Bookmakers have listed the Galaxy at (-220) for an implied probability of 68.8% to win the MLS Cup.
| MLS Cup |  |  |  |
| LA Galaxy | -125 | -125 | -120 |
| NY Red Bulls | +310 | +300 | +300 |
| Draw | +300 | +290 | +295 |
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about MLS betting sites.
LA Galaxy Have the Weight of the Universe on their Shoulders
Puns aside, it is the Los Angeles Galaxy who will feel the heat most on Saturday afternoon. A star-studded cast of players including German star Marco Reus have outlasted their Western competitors. But as the #2 seed, anything but a victory will be seen as a massive disappointment, especially when playing the final on home territory.
The Galaxy’s path to the title has arguably been a very easy one. A first-round matchup against the Colorado Rapids would have been trickier in the summer, when Colorado was on a purple patch. But the Rapids limped into the playoffs and without their star Djordje Mihailovic put up little resistance. Then came 6th-seeded Minnesota United and the fourth-seeded Seattle Sounders, who they took care of at home.
The Galaxy will have played one road game in these playoffs (an obligatory match in the best-of-3 first-round series), and will not play a top-3 seed. It really doesn’t get easier than this in the MLS, so fans will be eagerly awaiting celebratory festivities while owners count up their potential earnings. Can they live up to their expectations and take care of business? If any team is built to spoil the party, it is the New York Red Bulls.
Red Bulls Excelling in Out-of-Possession Play
Few would have pegged the New York Red Bulls as the Eastern Conference champions (at least in the MLS Cup Playoffs) when the regular season ended, yet here they are. A combination of elite goalkeeping, along with strong out-of-possession play and a bit of luck have got the Red Bulls to their second-ever MLS Cup final in their 30 years of existence.
Red Bulls love to counter-attack quickly upon regaining possession and catch opposing defenses off-guard. Orlando City tried to use this to their favor in the Conference Championship game, but it ultimately backfired. Orlando conceded possession in hopes of forcing Red Bulls to attempt sustained attacks and work to pull off counters of their own. However, a set piece goal from one of those attacks proved to be the game-winner, as Orlando had fewer opportunities to equalize without possession.
Los Angeles is more than comfortable with the ball in their control. That means this MLS Cup Final will likely revolve around the Galaxy’s ability to penetrate Red Bulls’ back line and prevent themselves from opening up too much during build-up in their own half. Set pieces and counters have long been considered equalizing factors in soccer, so New York’s success in those departments and their underdog rallies are likely correlated.
MLS Cup Final Betting Prediction: LA Galaxy Soccer Free Pick
While I would like to back the Red Bulls to keep this close, I see more value in the total. See, a match like this one could go one of two ways.
It could be a cagey battle that ends with one goal or less as the Galaxy dominate possession but send few numbers up in attack to mitigate the counter. This is how each club’s last match went. Or, one of the sides will score early and force the other side’s hand, resulting in a chaotic, end-to-end final. This outcome is similar to the one we witnessed in the Galaxy’s 6-2 win over Minnesota.
These clubs have only met four times since 2017, primarily since they are in opposite conferences. But in those meetings, at least four goals have been scored. And in 3 of the Galaxy’s 4 playoff games this year, at least 5 goals have been scored.
My projections indicate a total of 2.5 should be lined at (-392), yet we are seeing lines of (-154) available. Such a massive edge should be discounted slightly, since this is a knockout tie and it is very late in the season. Fatigue and game theory will play a big role in reducing goalscoring, but it is difficult for me to justify such a low total according to bookmakers.
The books are continuing to move this towards the under, so I would recommend waiting until gameday before placing a bet on the over. But at a flat line of 3, I will recommend a full unit wager on the over in what could be a thoroughly entertaining final. Besides, who doesn’t like rooting for goals?
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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