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PSG will be in a great mood when they return from the desert this week to host Saint-Etienne. That is because the Parisian giants hoisted the Trophee des Champions in Qatar after defeating Monaco in the final. A taste of glory could be the inspiration this team needs to win Ligue 1 for the fourth consecutive year. Read on for an expert PSG vs St-Etienne prediction and explore stats and tips for PSG betting in 2025.
- Ligue 1
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs AS Saint-Etienne
- Sunday, January 12, 2025
- 2:45 pm EST
- Parc des Princes, Paris, France
- Fubo
PSG vs St-Etienne: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?
You will be hard-pressed to find a top-flight match more lopsided according to the sportsbooks than the highlighted one we have in store this Sunday. PSG are (-1100) favorites to win in regulation. That is good for an implied probability of 91.7%. St-Etienne are (+2300) to pull off the upset, with a draw lined at (+1000).
Ligue 1 
PSG -1100 -1200 -1200 St-Etienne +2300 +2200 +2200 Draw +1220 +1000 +1000
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PSG: One of Two Remaining Undefeated Top European Clubs
Only Juventus can match the zero attached to the end of PSG’s record out of all the European clubs competing in top-flight competition. PSG have maintained an unbeaten record going into 2025 in domestic play, but it is continental affairs that have let them down. PSG sit precariously in 25th in the UEFA Champions League league phase with 7 points.
PSG only have a couple games left to get back into the top 24 and keep their European dreams alive. A semifinal trip would be their second in a row and third in five years. In fact, if they cannot break through into the top two dozen teams in the league phase, it will be PSG’s first failure to advance through the initial stages of the Champions League since 2011-12, when they only managed Europa League qualification.
On the bright side of things, Paris Saint-Germain are coming off a win in the Trophee des Champions final in Qatar. They also have a favorable Coupe de France tie ahead for a spot in the Round of 16. The Parisians drew Espaly away, a club mired in the depths of Championnat National 3. With such an easy spot upcoming and Champions League action still a couple of weeks out, Luis Enrique should be willing to field a relatively strong lineup Sunday.
St-Etienne Somehow Avoiding Relegation (for Now)
A whopping -20 goal differential and 10 losses, both good for 3rd-worst in Ligue 1 this term, are damning statistics for St-Etienne. Yet the recently promoted club is currently out of the dreaded relegation zone at the moment. Nantes, with two fewer wins but three fewer losses than St-Etienne, currently sits just below the Greens with 15 points.
Saint-Etienne were once the crown jewel of French soccer, dominating domestically in the 1960s and 1970s. They even went to the final of the Champions League in 1976. But a controversial financial scandal cascaded St-Etienne into a freefall. Now typically considered a bottom-tier Ligue 1 side, they have struggled to maintain their top-flight status in recent years.
Les Verts are now helmed by Eirik Horneland, an appointment made prior to this term despite the promotion of the club under Olivier Dall’Oglio. St-Etienne managed a 3-1 victory over Reims at home just before the Christmas break. That broke a streak of 4 straight defeats across all competitions. Unfortunately, their only result on the road so far came from a visit to Nantes.
An away win at Parc des Princes would be truly unprecedented. Not only have Saint-Etienne failed to claim three points on their travels, they have not won in Paris since the 2011-12 season.
PSG Betting Breakdown: Free PSG vs St-Etienne Pick
PSG have struggled mightily in continental competition and have looked a bit shaky domestically as well. Back-to-back draws to Nantes and Auxerre were not the reassuring performances supporters were looking for last month after losing to Bayern. But they are still leaps and bounds above pretty much everyone else in France. Saint-Etienne, meanwhile, are likely to be relegated back to the second division. The club has mustered just 5 away goals this campaign, a far cry from PSG’s 20.
While sportsbooks initially had the spread of this match at 2.5 in favor of the hosts, line movement has pushed this up a quarter of a goal to 2.75. That change is significant and arguably indicates sharps are liking PSG’s chances of winning in a blowout. My personal algorithm has PSG as bigger favorites than the line indicates as well.
My projections have a PSG line of -2.5 at (-349), so I see plenty of value on Les Parisiens to cover a handicap of 2.75 at near-even money. They should have most of their rotation at their disposal and will have a full week of rest after returning from Qatar. Saint-Etienne simply cannot compete with the kings of France, with or without Mbappe. Go with PSG -2.75 at (-106), available at BetOnline.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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