by
This weekend, one of the biggest derbies in soccer will take place in Manchester. The venerable Etihad Stadium will host City against United in East Manchester. The last time Man United defeated Man City across town was in 2021, but the odds are closer than expected this time. Read My Top Sportsbooks’s expert Manchester Derby picks and explore stats for Manchester Derby betting in 2024/25.
- English Premier League
- Round 16
- Manchester City FC vs Manchester United FC
- Sunday, December 15, 2024, 11:30 am EST
- Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
- Peacock, NBC
Manchester Derby Betting: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?
Though perhaps not to the extent that many would have predicted going into this season, Manchester City is clearly the favorite to defeat the struggling Red Devils at home. The best line to support a Man City victory is (-169). The payout for a draw is +385. You can receive a payment of (+415) if you believe Ruben Amorim will win his first Manchester derby.
Premier League 
Man City -174 -169 -175 Man United +415 +410 +390 Draw +385 +360 +370
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about Premier League betting odds.
Pep Guardiola Under Fire for Abysmal Run of Form
The past six weeks for Manchester City have been an unbelievable roller coaster. A terrible run of play that has never been witnessed by a Pep Guardiola-led squad has nearly shattered title hopes. Manchester is currently in fourth place on the table after just one league win since October 26. Many are predicting that the end is close, but with their demanding schedule of games coming up, the club has to get back on track quickly.
The Cityzens have allowed every team but Nottingham Forest to score multiple goals during their awful run. The eight goals they have scored in their last four games across all competitions show that their offensive is still producing goals despite the struggles of Phil Foden, Erling Haaland, and Jack Grealish.
It’s encouraging to see Kevin de Bruyne back in the dressing room following a lengthy injury absence. Additionally, after battling bronchitis last week, Foden has returned to his typical position in the lineup. Can such additions help Man City return to their previous glory?
I believe there is still a Rodri-sized gap in the defensive midfield that needs to be filled. Guardiola’s favorite, Gundogan, is clearly lacking in pace and has failed to replace Rodri. Manchester City needs to look for other possibilities during this winter transfer window if they want to believe they can still contend for a championship.
Breath of Fresh Air at Man United With Ruben Amorim
Old Trafford has finally seen a savior. A change was made at the top following months of suffering and dejection as their team dropped to a consistent mid-table team. Portugal’s newest coaching genius, Ruben Amorim, has replaced Erik ten Hag. Red Devils fans now have new optimism thanks to the Sporting head coach who led the team to numerous league victories and extended campaigns in European play.
Opinions differ, however, and the results are in. Doomsayers are already regretting the hire, while persistent optimists emphasize the value of patience while the manager gets used to the Premier League’s style. Having played five games thus far, Amorim has two wins to his credit. Amorim has never coached a team outside of Portugal, and it’s possible that his early exposure to English soccer is starting to show.
With the new manager bounce now practically behind him, Amorim needs to find a way to provide results quickly. The English are famously impatient when it comes to management hirings. The best chance to turn the corner may be a spectacular win over United’s fiercest opponent in the Manchester Derby.
The well-publicized exit of Dan Ashworth, a key player in United’s front office who apparently disagreed with his colleagues on the hire of Amorim, doesn’t help either. Ashworth might not be the only well-known figure to depart Manchester in the near future.
As he assesses his talent, Ruben Amorim has been making significant roster rotations. Amorim has the ideal chance to start over and get rid of any dead weight during the winter transfer window. Amorim will want a locker room that is united and productive if 2025 is to be a good year. That might lead to the selling of well-known stars like Harry Maguire, Antony, and Marcus Rashford.
Manchester Derby Betting Breakdown and Free Pick
Even though Manchester City has obviously had defensive difficulties, I believe the odds have moved too far in favor of that theory. The previous time Man City hosted at the Etihad, Nottingham Forest was held scoreless. Similarly, Man United’s attempt to score at Emirates Stadium last week was unsuccessful.
My projections agree with that sentiment as well. The Red Devils score 60.27% of the time, according to my calculations, which is good for an inferred probability of (-152). Taking their team total below 0.5 at (+200) is therefore worthwhile.
I dislike betting odds at such high juice, even though there is value in Man United’s team total under 1.5 goals as well. That number comes at a high cost, and in this beautiful game, I would much prefer to be on the side of variance. I’ll advise placing a wager at Bovada for a 2:1 payout, believing a City clean sheet is not off the table.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
Top Sportsbooks for Manchester Derby Betting
Explore some of the best sportsbooks for online betting below. Each website is reviewed by My Top Sportsbooks for user experience, customer service, new member promos, and more.
Sports Betting Sites 