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Milos Raonic draws the fan-favorite Rafael Nadal in the First Round of the BNP Paribas Open. Set in the desert of Indian Wells, California, the tournament is the biggest outside the four Grand Slams and typically packs a large crowd with it. Can the veteran return to form after suffering various injuries over the past year and outlast the Canadian? Read on to access an expert Milos Raonic vs Rafael Nadal 2024 prediction and explore stats and the latest Indian Wells odds.
- Milos Raonic vs Rafael Nadal, BNP Paribas Open
- March 7, 2024
- 2 PM EST*
- Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California
- Outdoor, Hardcourt
- Fubo, Tennis Channel
* estimated time
Milos Raonic vs Rafael Nadal 2024 Indian Wells Odds
The younger Milos Raonic is the underdog in the first round against the decorated Rafael Nadal, with a price of (+173). Nadal will look to make expectant fans and bettors proud with a hefty (-195) price tag.
Indian Wells Open 
Milos Raonic +173 +165 +160 +155 +155 Rafael Nadal -203 -200 -195 -210 -210
To learn more, visit our 2024 tennis betting tips.
Milos Raonic Recent Games and Record at Indian Wells
Raonic was forced to retire in the quarterfinals of the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament after battling to a tiebreak against the No. 4-ranked Jannik Sinner on February 16. Raonic’s formidable serve proved to be an insurmountable challenge for the Italian Sinner, serving as the key factor that propelled Raonic into the quarterfinals of the World Tennis Tournament in the first place. Despite a decline in his baseline performance and being one of the slower movers on the tour, Raonic’s dominance in serving ensures his competitiveness and presence in matches.
The outcome is potentially becoming one of habit for the 33-year-old, with wear and tear of a long pro career appearing to do a number on his body. At Melbourne Park, he secured a set against Alex de Minaur but withdrew due to injury when the match took a turn for the worse as well.
It’s worth noting that these two competitors engaged in a closely contested three-set match at Indian Wells in 2015, with Raonic emerging victorious with a 4-6, 7-6 (10), 7-5 scoreline. Perhaps they’ll recreate that memorable encounter and treat us to another timeless classic.
Rafael Nadal 2024 Performance and Expectations
In Monday’s draw for the initial ATP Masters 1000 of the year, the Spaniard found himself facing an intriguing challenge. His last visit to the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in 2022 saw him reach the final.
Since the conclusion of the 2023 Australian Open, Nadal has competed in just three tour-level matches. In the ATP Brisbane earlier this season, he achieved a 2-1 record, experiencing a quarterfinal defeat against Jordan Thompson. He made light work of early tournament contestants Dominic Thiem and Jason Kubler, dispatching both in straight sets.
Additionally, Nadal engaged in an exhibition match against Carlos Alcaraz, managing to win a set but ultimately losing in the 3-setter. Rafa looked noticeably better than expected considering his age and injury issues, lending positivity to fans who believe he may still remain in the race for another French Open victory later this year.
Nadal owns the head-to-head record against Raonic 8-2, but the two have not played in almost 5 years. Raonic has won two of their past 5 matches. The slower conditions in Indian Wells will provide Nadal with an advantage in handling Raonic’s dominant serve. However, this is far from guaranteed, especially considering Raonic’s strong performance in Rotterdam last month.
Looking ahead, the victor of this match will encounter Holger Rune in the upcoming round. Rune, despite being a top ten player, has experienced a prolonged dip in form. Assuming Nadal is in good shape, a contest between Rune and Nadal might be considered evenly matched. In such a scenario, oddsmakers might only slightly favor the Dane.
Milos Raonic vs Rafael Nadal Indian Wells Odds, Prediction and Free Betting Pick
The tricky part of predicting this match is the poor physical state of both players. It feels like both are trending in the wrong direction in terms of fitness, and a retirement from either side is certainly in the cards. Therefore, considering such an outcome requires caution of betting on outcomes that would be graded earlier, like moneylines.
BetOnline, BetUS and other top online sportsbooks use the “one set rule” to grade moneyline bets in the event of a walkover. This means that as long as one set is completed, the retiring player will be graded as receiving a loss and any moneyline bets on the player will receive the same judgment. However, totals often require the full match to be completed.
With this in mind, I will take the total games to go over 23 in this match, available at (-102) at highly-rated sportsbook BetOnline. Betting overs with two older players who try to limit mistakes, conserve their energy and take advantage of their service games is a situational look I typically take. A tiebreaker will almost assuredly cash the ticket, but a three-set match is not out of the question either. I don’t believe the market has adjusted for the stylistic matchup here.
That being said, I advocate just a half unit on such a volatile match. Make sure to check your sportsbook’s tennis betting rules before you place your wager to ensure your bet is only graded upon completion of the full match, or unless the total went over already.
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