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- What: UFC 306 Co-Main Event
- Who: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3
- Date: Saturday, September 14, 2024
- Location: Sphere in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Early Prelims (7:30 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The much anticipated Riyadh Season Noche UFC fight card takes place on Saturday, September 14 from Sphere in Las Vegas. The event, also known as UFC 306, marks the fight promotion’s second celebration of Mexican Independence Day, is headlined by a bantamweight title fight. That matchup finds UFC 135-pound champion Sean O’Malley putting his title on the line against the No. 1 ranked Merab Dvalishvili. The evening’s co-main event is a trilogy title fight between UFC women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and former champ Valentina Shevchenko. Here is some background on the co-main event fighters before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC 306.
Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) won the 125-pound title in March 2023 with a submission over Shevchenko. She held onto the title in a draw when the two met in a rematch in September 2023. Grasso is on a six-fight unbeaten streak.
Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1) held the UFC women’s 125-pound title from December 2018 through March 2023, defending her crown seven times, a UFC women’s record. She was unbeaten in nine UFC flyweight fights before losing to Grasso.
Before we look at the best bets for the Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko trilogy on the UFC 306 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find our betting pick for the UFC 306 main event.
UFC 306 co-main event: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3 betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Valentina Schevchenko | -105 | -108 | -115 | -111 |
| Alexa Grasso | -115 | -112 | -115 | -115 |
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3 betting breakdown
The first thing that needs to be noted about this trilogy fight is that when the first fight between Grasso and Shevchenko ended at 4:34 of the fourth round, Shevchenko was ahead on all three judge’s scorecards 29-28. The judges all awarded Grasso the first round, while Shevchenko took rounds two and three. The only round of the four that was close statistically was the first round, where Shevchenko landed 26 significant strikes to Grasso’s 24. The closing odds of that fight had Shevchenko as a massive -850 betting favorite over Grasso, who was the +600 betting underdog.
The rematch saw much closer betting odds with Shevchenko listed at -165 and Grasso at +140 on fight night. Both women had their moments in that matchup with the defending champion dropping the former champ in the second round. Shevchenko rebounded in the third stanza and nearly finished Grasso via a mounted guillotine choke. The fight came to an end with Grasso on Shevchenko’s back, landing strikes. The judges scored it 48-47, 47-48 and 47-47 for a split draw. The MMA media were also split on the scoring, with 11 members scoring the contest for Grasso and 11 scoring the matchup in favor of Shevchenko.
When the betting odds for the trilogy fight opened, Grasso was listed at -117 and Shevchenko at -107. Those odds have not shifted much as UFC 306 fight night approaches.
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3: What to watch
The first fight between Grasso and Shevchenko gave both these women something to build on and a list of improvements to make. The adjustments the former champ needed to make were subtractions more than additions. She needed to be more aggressive in her kicking game but more basic in those attacks, going to the body and fighting at range with her kicks without incorporating risky spinning techniques. She also needed to be less obvious with her takedowns.
As for the current champ, Grasso needed to close distance more effectively. She could not rely on being a counterstriker, and she needed to land more significant strikes than she did in the first fight.
Grasso was more aggressive in the rematch. She landed 59 of 181 attempted significant strikes in the first fight for a 32 percent striking rate. Grasso upped that number to 84 of 203 with a success rate of 41 percent in the rematch. She also picked up a takedown and 2:39 of ground control time in the second fight. She did not have a takedown in the first matchup.
Shevchenko had an excellent landing rate of 60 percent in the first fight going 87 for 145 in her significant strikes. Plus, she went four-for-six in takedowns with 5:24 of control time. In the rematch, Shevchenko’s striking numbers dropped to 80 of 179, a success rate of 44 percent. Her ground control time increased to 8:37 while picking up four takedowns on seven attempts.
Age could be a factor in this fight. Shevchenko is 36, while Grasso is 31. Fighters usually start a decline around 35, so that’s something to consider for the former champ, who also had a lengthy kickboxing career ahead of her full-time move to MMA.
Best Bets: UFC 306 co-main event: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3
A pick ’em feels right for the betting odds for the third meeting between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko. However, I am leaning toward Grasso. She made the better adjustments heading into the second fight and I believe the champ and her team have the room to make a few more incremental changes to give her the push she needs to get the victory in this trilogy fight at UFC 306.
The betting pick is for Alexa Grasso to beat Valentina Shevchenko by decision at UFC 306.
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