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- What: UFC Vegas 89 Main Event
- Who: Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas
- Date: Saturday, March 23, 2024
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Prelims (7:00 p.m. ET) Main Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Prelims: ESPN+, Main Card: ESPN
The UFC is at the Apex in Las Vegas for this weekend’s ESPN fight card. In the main event of UFC Vegas 89, Amanda Ribas looks to move up the UFC women’s flyweight rankings when she faces former UFC strawweight champion Rose Namajunas in a contest that is scheduled for five rounds. Here is some background on Ribas and Namajunas before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC Vegas 89.
Amanda Ribas (13-4) is the No. 8 fighter in the official UFC women’s flyweight rankings. The 30-year-old has alternated wins and losses in her past seven fights and is coming off a November knockout win over Luana Pinheiro in a strawweight scrap. Ribas won a Performance of the Night bonus for that finish.
Rose Namajunas (11-6) is unranked at 125 pounds. She moved up from 115 pounds for her last fight but lost that September bout to Manon Fiorot by unanimous decision. In her prior outing, Namajunas dropped the UFC strawweight title to Carla Esparza by split decision.
Before we look at the best bets for the Ribas vs. Namajunas matchup on the UFC Vegas 89 card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC Vegas 89 main event: Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Amanda Ribas | +150 | +142 | +145 | +145 |
| Rose Namajunas | -175 | -170 | -175 | -175 |
Amanda Ribas betting breakdown
Amanda Ribas is a very aggressive fighter. She uses forward pressure and high striking output to put her opponent on her back foot. Her striking, which she mixes up well, using punches and kicks, mainly to the head and legs, could be more crisp and technical. However, Ribas’ goal is not to score a knockout, but to close distance and create opportunities for takedowns. Ribas is good on the ground, using top pressure, strikes, and submission techniques to rack up control time and prevent her opponent from scoring with the judges. One of the intangibles that helps Ribas succeed is her will to win. She never quits, and she is always looking for the finish. Ribas also has good cardio, which allows her to overwhelm opponents who might not be ready to go the distance.
If there is a fault in Ribas’ game plan, it is that her striking defense needs to be improved. She doesn’t have good head movement, and often leaves her head on the center line, making her an easy target for strikes.
Ribas lands 4.02 significant strikes per minute, with a 42 percent striking accuracy. She absorbs 3.33 strikes per minute and has a defense of 63 percent. Ribas averages 1.99 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 51 percent accuracy. Her takedown defense is 87 percent, and she averages 0.8 submissions per 15 minutes.
Rose Namajunas betting breakdown
There were a lot of questions plaguing Rose Namajunas ahead of her last fight. Her loss to Esparza was a bad one. She only landed 37 significant strikes in the five-round battle and seemed reluctant to engage. Further, there were questions about why she would move to 125, as she has two wins over the current 115-pound champion. With that, the real question Namajunas is facing is if she has the confidence and drive to perform at a high level in a new weight class. She did not fully answer those questions in her loss to Manon Fiorot.
Namajunas did pick up her activity against Fiorot, attempting 150 significant strikes and landing 60. She also used her speed well in that fight. However, Fiorot’s output was much higher than Namajunas’s in each of the three rounds of the contest. If Namajunas can up her striking output in this fight, she has a good chance of winning. However, if she allows Ribas to set the pace and overwhelm her with strikes, things could go poorly for the former strawweight champion.
Namajunas averages 3.68 significant strikes landed per minute with an accuracy of 40 percent. She gets tagged 3.53 times per minute with a defensive rate of 62 percent. The ex-champion lands 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a success rate of 48 percent. Namajunas’ takedown defense is 60 percent, and she averages 0.6 submissions per 15 minutes
Best Bets: UFC Vegas 89 main event – Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas
Had this fight taken place a few years ago, Namajunas would be the easy betting pick, but it’s 2024 and Namajunas is not the same fighter who held the UFC strawweight belt. Before looking at the fighter that will win the main event of UFC Vegas 89, let’s consider the outcome. The betting pick is for this fight to go the five-round distance as both women are tough and resilient. As for who will prevail in this contest, the betting value is on Ribas to win. Ribas, the betting underdog is also the pick to beat Namajunas by decision in an upset.
Best bet for UFC Vegas 89 main event: Amanda Ribas to beat Rose Namajunas by decision.
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