by
- What: UFC 309
- Who: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
- Date: Saturday, November, 16, 2024
- Location: Madison Square Garden in NY, NY
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPNews), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones returns in the main event of UFC 309. Jones, who claimed the vacant UFC heavyweight crown in March 2023 with a submission win over Ciryl Gane, faces Stipe Miocic, the only man to defend the UFC heavyweight title three times, at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Saturday, November 16. Before that contest takes place, a meaningful middleweight matchup between Bo Nickal and Paul Craig goes down on the UFC 309 PPV card. Here is some background on Nickal and Craig before we look at the UFC 309 betting breakdown.
Bo Nickal (6-0) is undefeated as an MMA fighter. The former Penn State NCAA wrestling champion is 3-0 in the UFC with three stoppages. All of Nickal’s career wins have come via stoppage, with five of his six fights ending inside the first round.
Paul Craig (17-8-1) has been with the UFC since 2016. A grappling specialist, Craig is the only fighter with a win over top-ranked UFC competitor Magomed Ankalaev. Craig is on a two-fight losing skid and is 1-4 dating back to July 2022.
Before we look at the best bets for Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig on the UFC 309 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find our betting picks for the UFC 309 main event: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic.
UFC 309 Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Paul Craig | +600 | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| Bo Nickal | -1000 | -1100 | -1000 | -1099 |
Bo Nickal betting breakdown
Bo Nickal has only been with the UFC since March 2023, following two wins on Dana White’s Contender Series, but the confident 28-year-old is already being looked at as a future UFC middleweight champion. Some of those expectations have to do with Nickal’s background as a three-time NCAA wrestling champion under Cael Sanderson while at Penn State. Additionally, Nickal has transitioned well to MMA, showing he’s not just a wrestler but a fighter who can also implement a developing striking game.
While Nickal is developing his striking, his goal remains to get the fight to the mat, where he can use his wrestling and growing jiu-jitsu skills to look for a submission finish. Nickal was unhappy with his UFC 300 win over Cody Brundage, his first fight to go past the 2:54 mark of the first round. Expect a more focused and better trained Nickal at UFC 309. The fact that he hasn’t fought since April should have allowed Nickal the training time to expand his skill set ahead of his matchup against Craig.
Nickal lands 1.64 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 62 percent. His striking defense is 70 percent, and he gets hit 0.50 times per minute. Nickal averages 7.46 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50 percent.
Paul Craig betting breakdown
Paul Craig is an excellent grappler, as evidenced by his 13 career wins via submission. The problem with Craig is that he doesn’t have much going for him outside of his grappling. Craig is not strictly a grappler, but if one shuts down his jiu-jitsu, the odds of scoring a win against him increase exponentially. Craig is incredibly tough, he has zero quit in him. When facing Craig opponents cannot get too confident or comfortable even if they are dominating the fight because Craig’s ability to find a submission at any time is impressive, as evidenced by his submission of Ankalaev at 4:59 of the third round of their matchup.
Craig is usually not a threat on the feet. With that, the expectation is that Nickal will look to test his striking skills in the opening moments of this matchup. Craig needs to be ready for that and have a defensive striking game plan at UFC 309.
Craig averages 2.45 significant strikes landed per minute with an accuracy of 46 percent. He absorbs 2.97 significant strikes per minute with a defense of 44 percent. Craig sticks 1.68 takedowns per 15 minutes with a success rate of 20 percent. His takedown defense is 37 percent.
Best Bets: UFC 309 – Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
This matchup seems designed to get Bo Nickal a win, as the betting odds indicate. The betting value is in picking how Nickal will earn the victory at UFC 309. The easy pick is Nickal to get a finish, but how?
The betting pick is for Bo Nickal to beat Paul Craig at UFC 309 via knockout.
See below the top offshore sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
Best Betting Sites 