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- What: UFC 304
- Who: Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
- Date: Saturday, July 27, 2024
- Location: Co-op Live in Manchester, England
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The next UFC pay-per-view card, UFC 304, takes place on July 27 at Co-op Live in Manchester, England. In the main event of the ESPN+ streaming pay-per-view card, UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards, who fights out of Birmingham, England, faces American Belal Muhammad. Before that scrap takes place, Bobby Green and Paddy Pimblett meet in a pivotal lightweight matchup. Below is some background on the fighters before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC 304.
Bobby Green (32-15-1) has been with the UFC since 2013. The veteran is 3-1 in his past four outings with two stoppage wins and two fight-night bonuses in those outings. Green is No. 15 in the official UFC lightweight rankings. His last fight was an April decision over Jim Miller.
Paddy Pimblett (21-3) joined the UFC in 2021 after winning titles at lightweight and featherweight with Cage Warriors. Pimblett is 5-0 in the UFC and coming off a December decision win over Tony Ferguson.
Before we look at the best bets for the Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett fight on the UFC 304 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find our UFC 304 Main Event betting picks.
UFC 304: Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Bobby Green | -105 | -120 | -115 | -124 |
| Paddy Pimblett | -115 | EVEN | -115 | -103 |
Bobby Green betting breakdown
Bobby Green is a true mixed martial artist. While the 37-year-old is most comfortable in a striking matchup, he can get things done on the mat as well, as his 2023 submission of Tony Ferguson showed. Green is one of the most underrated boxers in the UFC’s lightweight division. His speed is undervalued, and while he doesn’t usually score one-punch knockouts, his volume striking and accuracy have broken more than his fair share of opponents.
Green sometimes gets in trouble when he decides he wants to entertain more than he wants to compete. When that happens, Green tends to forget his defense and takes a lot of unnecessary risks. That’s a real concern in this matchup since he’s fighting in Paddy Pimblett’s home country, and he knows that Pimblett is one of the more hyped fighters in the UFC these days. With that, Green might be focused on a highlight reel knockout more than a grinding decision.
Green lands 6.45 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 52 percent. He gets hit 3.75 times per minute, and his striking defense is 62 percent. Green lands 1.19 takedowns per 15 minutes, and his takedown accuracy is 38 percent. His takedown defense is 74 percent.
Paddy Pimblett betting breakdown
When Paddy Pimblett debuted with the UFC there was a lot of hype behind the young English fighter. Although he has not lost during his UFC run, the 29-year-old has lost some of his shine. One of the reasons fans and pundits aren’t as high on Pimblett as they once were is that he has not outgrown his bad habit of fighting with his chin high and his hands low. Another reason Pimblett is not being pushed as much as he once was is because he has seemingly stagnated in his growth. He is a talented fighter who can compete on the feet and the mat, but his upside is lower than it once was. With that being said, a win over a ranked fighter like Bobby Green, in this, the final fight on Pimblett’s current UFC contract, will help him shake some of the concerns about his style and upside.
Pimblett is a better grappler than he is a striker, but he tends to strike more than he grapples. That could change against Green, who is a dangerous striker.
Pimblett lands 5.13 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 52 percent. He absorbs 3.70 significant strikes per minute with a defense of 41 percent. Pimblett’s takedown accuracy is 25 percent, and he lands 0.98 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown defense is 56 percent.
Best Bets: Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
This could be the fight that makes or breaks Paddy Pimblett. A win at UFC 304 over Bobby Green will put him in the top 15 of the UFC lightweight division and set up a bout with a higher-ranked opponent. A loss and Pimblett likely becomes a fighter who competes on English fight cards to capitalize on his popularity. This is not a must-win for Pimblett in the strictest sense, but if he hopes to work his way close to a title shot, he needs a victory in a big way.
Pimblett is a hittable fighter. I don’t think he’ll improve his defense at this point in his career, it’s who he is. If Green stays focused and waits for an opening where Pimblett exposes his chin, and that will happen more than once, Green could score the knockout win or at least rack up points with his strikes. However, if Pimblett decides to grapple for three rounds, Green is in trouble.
The betting pick is for Bobby Green to beat Paddy Pimblett by decision, but there is a chance for a Green knockout win as well as a value bet.
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