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- What: UFC Vegas 100 Main Event
- Who: Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
- Date: Saturday, November 9, 2024
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET), Main Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN+
The UFC returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for the next fight card on the UFC schedule, UFC Vegas 100. The main event of the November 9 fight card is a welterweight matchup between Neil Magny and Carlos Prates. Magny enters UFC Vegas 100 as the No. 15 fighter in the official UFC welterweight rankings, while Prates is currently unranked. Here is some background on Magny and Prates before we discuss the betting breakdown of the UFC Vegas 100 main event.
Neil Magny (29-12) has long been considered one of the more well-rounded fighters in the UFC’s welterweight division, Magny has alternated wins and losses over his past eight outings. He is coming off an August TKO loss to Michael Morales. Magny has not lost back-to-back fights since he went 1-2 to open his UFC career in 2013.
Carlos Prates (20-6) is 3-0 in the UFC with three knockout victories and three “Performance of the Night” bonuses. He joined the UFC in 2023 with a KO win on a Dana White’s Contender Series card. Prates has not lost since he dropped a decision to Gadjimurad Abdulaev under the ONE banner in 2019.
Before we look at the best bets for Magny vs. Prates on the UFC Vegas 100 card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find our betting picks for the UFC 309 main event.
UFC Vegas 100 main event: Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Carlos Prates | -700 | -650 | -800 | -699 |
| Neil Magny | +500 | +450 | +500 | +440 |
Neil Magny betting breakdown
UFC Vegas 100 marks the first time Neil Magny has headlined a UFC card since he lost a five-round decision to Michael Chiesa in January 2021. Magny has been the UFC’s welterweight gatekeeper for the past few years. A victory over Magny is meaningful. In 2022, Shavkat Rakhmonov beat Magny by submission. Rakhmonov is now the No. 3 ranked 170-pounder and is next in line for a title shot. In 2023, Ian Machado Garry topped Magny by decision. Garry is headlining a UFC card in December and is ranked No. 7 in the division. Magny’s most recent opponent, Michael Morales, is currently ranked at No. 12.
Magny is a tough opponent to figure out. He’s skilled everywhere, but he’s best when he keeps the fight on the feet. Magny has a good ground game as well, should the fight hit the mat. If an opponent allows Magny to implement his game plan, he can control the pace and location of the fight well. His last fight against a striker was the Morales matchup and Magny tried his best to make that a wrestling match, which he failed to do. Look for Magny to attempt a similar game plan against Prates.
Magny averages 3.44 significant strikes per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 46 percent. He absorbs 2.48 significant strikes per minute with a defense of 51 percent. Magny averages 2.15 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 40 percent. His takedown defense is 54 percent.
Carlos Prates betting breakdown
This is an enormous test for Carlos Prates. Yes, he’s looked very good as a member of the UFC roster, but he only has three fights with the promotion, all of which have been in 2024, and he has never headlined a UFC event before. Prates has 15 career knockout wins.
Prates is a powerful striker with good movement and footwork who will mix up his targets and techniques. His kicking game is above average, and he has a penchant for throwing head kicks whenever he has the time and space to do so. In addition to his power, Prates is an accurate striker. In his most recent win over Li Jingliang, Prates connected on 65 percent of his attempted significant strikes while focusing on the head and legs of his foe. Prates won that bout and became the first man to ever score a knockout over Jingliang. It was his ninth straight knockout victory.
Prates lands 4.71 significant strikes per minute with a 57 percent accuracy. He does get hit a lot, averaging 5.02 strikes absorbed per minute with a defense of 48 percent. Prates has not attempted a UFC takedown, but his takedown defense stands at 80 percent.
Best Bets: UFC Vegas 100 main event: Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
There is not much betting value in picking Carlos Prates, but he is the betting pick to win on Saturday. For those looking for value, Magny offers some interesting odds. However, I would not wager a large amount on Magny to get the win. Instead, I would look for betting odds on Prates to win via knockout.
The betting pick is Carlos Prates to beat Neil Magny via knockout.
See below the top offshore sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
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