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- What: UFC St Louis: Lewis vs. Nascimento
- Who: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
- Date: Saturday, May 11, 2024
- Location: Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO
- Time: Prelims (84:00 p.m. ET), Main Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Prelims (ESPN+), Main Card (ESPN+, ESPN)
The UFC returns to St. Louis, Missouri, for the first time in nearly six years for Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 56 fight card. The event, which ESPN will broadcast, is headlined by a heavyweight contest between former title challenger Derrick Lewis and rising contender Rodrigo Nascimento. Here is some background on the UFC St. Louis main event competitors, before we look at the betting breakdown for Lewis vs. Nascimento.
Derrick Lewis (27-12-0-1) is one of the most popular fighters in the UFC’s heavyweight division. Known for his knockout power, Lewis is the No. 12 fighter in the official UFC heavyweight rankings. The 39-year-old is 1-4 in his past five outings and hasn’t triumphed in back-to-back fights since he won four in a row between 2019 and 2021. Lewis is coming off a November decision loss to Jailton Almeida.
Rodrigo Nascimento (11-1-0-1) is the No. 15 ranked competitor among UFC heavyweights. The 31-year-old has won three straight following his TKO win over Alan Baudot, which was later ruled a no contest after Nascimento tested positive for Ritalinic acid. He is coming off a November decision win over Don’Tale Mayes.
Before we look at the best bets for the Lewis vs. Nascimento matchup on the UFC Vegas 56 fight card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC St. Louis main event: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | +140 | +135 | +130 | +132 |
| Derrick Lewis | -160 | -165 | -160 | -170 |
Derrick Lewis betting breakdown
Derrick Lewis is one of the hardest-hitting fighters in the heavyweight division, as evidenced by his all-time UFC record for knockout wins with 14. For as much power as Lewis packs in his punches, he’s not a terribly active striker. He tends to throw big punches and little volume. Lewis lands just 2.43 significant strikes per minute and connects on 50 percent of his attempts. As for his defense, Lewis gets hit 2.48 times per minute and has a defensive striking rate of 40 percent.
Lewis will look to end this fight as quickly as possible by trying to find a home for the first strike he throws, which will likely be a big uppercut as Nascimento is likely to charge out and meet Lewis in the center of the Octagon and exchange punches with his opponent. If he can’t accomplish that early, Lewis will sit back and look for openings, which he could find if Nascimento agrees to keep the fight standing, which I don’t know if he will, considering how much control time Lewis’ most recent opponent, Jailton Almeida rang up in their November matchup, which was more than 20 minutes of the 25-minute scrap.
Lewis does not have good takedown defense, and an opponent who can keep him on the mat once he gets a takedown will not struggle to dominate the fight. For all his pluses in the striking game, Lewis is not a strong grappler, which hurts him greatly against well-rounded fighters.
Rodrigo Nascimento betting breakdown
Rodrigo Nascimento did not land a takedown in his last fight against Don’Tale Mayes, but don’t let that outing fool you; he is a grappler much more than a striker, as his six career submission wins can attest. If Nascimento fell in love with his striking after his victory over Mayes, he would be in trouble against an opponent as powerful and well-versed in striking as Lewis is. However, If Nascimento is smart, he will use his striking to set up at range and shoot for takedowns, something he did against Tanner Boser in 2022, a fight he won by decision after landing three takedowns and picking up 8:01 of control time.
Nascimento is an active striker, landing 4.31 significant strikes per minute with a success rate of 48 percent. However, and this is a concerning stat when facing someone like Lewis; he absorbs 4.76 strikes per minute, and his defensive striking rate is 43 percent. Where Nascimento can shine in this matchup is in the wrestling department. He averages 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a success rate of 33 percent.
Nascimento will put out more volume than Lewis in his striking and that’s fine, but his lack of defense and his propensity for getting hit are dangerous against someone with Lewis’ power.
Best Bets for UFC St. Louis main event – Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
This is a five-round fight, and that means even if Rodrigo Nascimento can take Derrick Lewis to the mat, Lewis has at least five opportunities to score a knockout win over a fighter who tends to get hit a lot more than he should for a heavyweight with good grappling skills. Nascimento is a live betting underdog in this matchup, and there is some value in betting on him grinding out a five-round decision or securing a submission, but the betting pick for this fight is for Derrick Lewis to win via knockout.
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