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- What: UFC 305 Main Event
- Who: Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
- Date: Saturday, August 17, 2024
- Location: RAC Arena in Perth, Australia
- Time: Early Prelims (6:30 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The next UFC pay-per-view card on the schedule is UFC 305, which takes place on Saturday, August 17, at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. In the main event of the ESPN+ streaming PPV card, UFC middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis puts his title on the line against former two-time UFC 185-pound champion Israel Adesanya. Below is some background on the fighters before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC 305.
Dricus du Plessis (21-2) won the UFC middleweight crown in January 2024 with a split decision win over Sean Strickland. Before that, Du Plessis knocked out ex-champ Robert Whittaker in July 2023.
Israel Adesanya (24-3) is the No. 2 ranked fighter in the UFC middleweight division. In his first run as champion, Adesanya successfully defended his title five times. His second stint with the belt ended in his first defense when he dropped a decision to Strickland in September 2023.
Before we look at the best bets for the Du Plessis vs. Adesanya matchup on the UFC 305 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC 305 main event: Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya betting picks
| To Win UFC Middleweight Title |  |  |  |  |
| Israel Adesanya | -140 | -140 | -140 | -140 |
| Dricus du Plessis | +120 | +120 | +110 | +110 |
Dricus du Plessis betting breakdown
Dricus Du Plessis has answered many, if not all, of the questions that have surrounded him in his past two fights. While he rose through the ranks, there were questions about his durability, cardio, and style. The UFC middleweight champ is durable. He has not been knocked down in his seven fights despite being matched against some heavy-handed opponents. His cardio is better than average, as he can push forward and put a fast pace on his opponents, and go five rounds. His style is somewhat reckless, but he has beaten fighters with exceptional defense and countering skills.
The question that this fight will answer is how will Du Plessis fare against a fighter in Adesanya, who is fast, technical, well-coached, and adept at making reads and adjusting during the heat of battle. If Du Plessis gets too reckless or too aggressive, Adesanya could find the opening to score with his counters. However, Du Plessis has more than striking to rely on, something he showed when he picked up six takedowns against Strickland, and a heavy top game has not been something that Adesanya has fared well against.
Du Plessis lands 6.49 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 50 percent. His striking defense is 55 percent and he gets hit 4.77 times per minute. The champ averages 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 51 percent. His takedown defense is 40 percent.
Israel Adesanya betting breakdown
One of the most talented mixed martial artists of the past few years, Israel Adesanya, looks to become a three-time champion in the main event of UFC 305. A fantastic striker who is excellent at judging timing and distance, Adesanya has made minor adjustments and additions to his bag of tricks over the years, making him a more dangerous and difficult opponent. One of the few fighters in the game who can make massive adjustments during battle, Adesanya is well-coached and dialed in with his team at City Kickboxing in Auckland, New Zealand.
One worry about Adesanya is that he can sometimes lay back too much during fights, something that cost him his title against Strickland. His style is one of reaction more than leading the dance, which hurt him against Strickland. Du Plessis is somewhat similar to Strickland in that he is a fighter that uses pressure and forward motion. Adesanya needs to negate that pressure more than react to it.
Adesanya last fought nearly a year ago. That could be good for the champ, but it could also be bad. If he used the time to reset and regain his drive, that’s great. If the time off hurts his timing, that will be a problem.
Adesanya lands 3.93 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 48 percent. His striking defense is 56 percent, and he absorbs 3.11 strikes per minute. The ex-champ lands 0.05 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 14 percent, and his takedown defense is 77 percent.
Best Bets: UFC 305 Main Event – Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
The main event of UFC 305 is one of the hard title fights to predict. Adesanya is the better technical fighter, but Du Plessis is a threat to anyone in the division. Looking at their recent common opponent in Sean Strickland, I think the defending champ has a slight advantage because of his pressure, tenacity, and output. The betting pick is for Dricus du Plessis to defeat Israel Adesanya via decision.
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