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- What: UFC 309 Main Event
- Who: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
- Date: Saturday, November, 16, 2024
- Location: Madison Square Garden in NY, NY
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN+), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The return of UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones takes place in the main event of UFC 309. Jones, who claimed the vacant UFC heavyweight crown in March 2023 with a submission win over Ciryl Gane, faces Stipe Miocic, the only man to defend the UFC heavyweight title three times, at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Saturday, November 16. Here is some background on the fighters before we look at the betting odds, picks, and predictions for the UFC 309 main event.
Jon Jones (27-1-0-1) captured the UFC heavyweight title left vacant by Francis Ngannou when he left the UFC as a free agent, with a submission win over Ciryl Gane at UFC 285. Jones, a former long-reigning UFC light heavyweight champ, was initially booked to face Miocic at UFC 295, but a torn pectoral muscle and subsequent surgeries knocked him from that event.
Stipe Miocic (20-4) returns to action for the first time since Ngannou knocked him out for the UFC heavyweight title in March 2021. Miocic, a two-time UFC champ, defended his belt three times during his first tile reign, which lasted from May 2016 through July 2018.
Before we look at the best bets for Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic on the UFC 309 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC 309 main event: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic betting picks
| To Win UFC Heavyweight Title |  |  |  |
| Jon Jones | -700 | -700 | -700 |
| Stipe Miocic | +500 | +500 | +500 |
Jon Jones betting breakdown
Jon Jones failed to answer any pressing questions about his abilities to compete as a top-level heavyweight in his matchup against Ciryl Gane. While Jones looked impressive during the brief 124 seconds of the fight, Gane fell well short of expectations. Additionally, there are concerns about Jones’ future in the UFC, with speculation mounting that the 37-year-old is considering retirement after UFC 309 even if he wins, which would deny interim UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall his shot at unifying the titles.
Jones has an advantage in wrestling over Miocic in this matchup. The champs’s takedown ability and defensive wrestling are exceptional. However, when it comes to striking, Jones lacks one-punch knockout power. Most of his knockout victories result from volume and breaking down his opponents. Between September 2013 and February 2020, Jones recorded one knockout win. Although Jones is skilled on the ground, it took him nearly 11 years to achieve a second submission victory in the UFC. While his cardio, training, and focus were once unquestionable, those traits have faced scrutiny over the past few years.
Jones has a four-inch reach advantage over Miocic. The champ lands 4.29 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 57 percent. He absorbs an average of 2.22 significant strikes per minute, and his striking defense is 64 percent. Jones picks up 1.93 takedowns per 15 minutes, with an accuracy of 45 percent. His takedown defense is 95 percent.
Stipe Miocic betting breakdown
Stipe Miocic is stepping into the Octagon after a layoff of more than 1,300 days, which raises significant red flags, especially since he turned 42 in August. This extensive absence is particularly concerning as he faces a highly skilled opponent in Jones.
Miocic primarily relies on striking, boasting 15 knockout wins in his career, yet he is also highly vulnerable; three of his losses have come by knockout. Notably, he has never been submitted. While Miocic is indeed a well-rounded fighter, it is impossible to ignore the considerable time he has spent away from competition and his age.
Miocic’s best chance in this fight is on the feet, but Jones is a hard fighter to hit cleanly.
Miocic lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 53 percent. His striking defense is 54 percent and he absorbs 3.82 significant strikes per minute. Miocic earns 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes, with an accuracy of 34 percent. His takedown defense is 68 percent.
Best Bets: UFC 309 main event: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
As with any heavyweight fight, a knockout from either man is not out of the question. With that, if one thinks Miocic, the betting underdog, will get the win, there is a great deal of betting value in picking him to win via KO.
My betting pick for this fight is the betting favorite, Jon Jones. Unless he takes Miocic lightly, Jones will win at UFC 309. My betting prediction is that Jones will prevail by decision. There is an outside chance of Miocic’s cardio failing him, and with that, a Jones stoppage victory via submission or knockout is not out of the question.
Best UFC 309 main event betting pick: Jon Jones to beat Stipe Miocic via decision.
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