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- What: UFC Vegas 103 Main Event
- Who: Manel Kape Vs. Asu Almabayev
- Date: Saturday, March 1, 2025
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET), Main Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN+
The next UFC event, UFC Vegas 103, takes place on Saturday, March 1, from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The fight at the top of the card is a flyweight affair between two competitors ranked inside the top 10. In that contest, Manel Kape faces Asu Almabayev. Kape enters the UFC Fight Night card as the No. 6 ranked flyweight, while Almabayev checks in as the No. 8 fighter in the UFC’s 125-pound division. Here is some background on the UFC Vegas 103 fighters, before we look at the betting odds, picks, and predictions for Kape vs. Almabayev.
Manel Kape (20-7) is a former Rizin bantamweight champion. The 31-year-old joined the UFC in 2021. Kape dropped his first two UFC contests, but he is 5-1 since then. He is coming off a December 2024 TKO win over Bruno Silva.
Asu Almabayev (21-2) began his professional MMA career with a 4-2 record. Since losing back-to-back contests in 2017, the 31-year-old is unbeaten in his past 17 fights. Almabayev joined the UFC in 2023. He is a perfect 4-0 with the promotion and coming off an October 2024 decision win over Matheus Nicolau.
Before we look at the best bets for Manel Kape Vs. Asu Almabayev on the UFC Vegas 103 card, check out the best UFC betting sites and our betting picks for the UFC 313 main event, Alex Pereira Vs. Magomed Ankalaev, for the UFC light heavyweight title.
UFC Vegas 103 Main Event: Manel Kape Vs. Asu Almabayev betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |
| Manel Kape | -245 | -230 | -245 |
| Asu Almabayev | +210 | +190 | +205 |
UFC Vegas 103 Main Event: Manel Kape betting breakdown
Manel Kape lacked a sense of urgency in his early UFC fights, almost as if he thought his ability would be enough to sway the judges in his direction. He has shed that approach as he realized that UFC talent is more formidable than he faced outside the promotion.
Kape is a threat to any UFC flyweight when he is aggressive and controlled. He is also good at stringing together combinations, thanks to his superior hand speed and forcing his opponent to fight off his back foot. He is unafraid to use his speed and power to go after knockouts, with the majority of his victories coming by stoppage due to strikes (12). His southpaw approach and ability to control range on the feet can be frustrating for his opponents. Kape can also wrestle when he needs to.
Kape is coming off his best performance under the UFC banner, his TKO win over Bruno Silva. However, before that, he fought a very cautious bout against a top-notch
Kape lands 5.05 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 56 percent. His striking defense is 58 percent, and he absorbs 4.15 significant strikes per minute. Kape averages 0.47 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 33 percent. His takedown defense is 77 percent.
UFC Vegas 103 Main Event: Asu Almabayev betting breakdown
Asu Almabayev took this fight on short notice, stepping in for former UFC flyweight title challenger Brandon Royval, who was forced from the card in early February because of an undisclosed injury. Kape is a big step up in competition for Almabayev, who was ranked at No. 14 going into his fight against Nicolau, who was on a two-fight losing skid heading into that bout, which was on the prelims of a UFC Fight Night card.
Almabayev is an excellent grappler who is also good at striking. He controls range well with movement. However, he uses his striking to set up his takedowns, where he is dominant on the ground with a strong control game.
Almabayev can pressure well on the feet, but he is not the better striker of the two in this matchup. If he pushes forward too much or too aggressively against Kape, Almabayev runs the risk of eating a big counters. The dilemma in this matchup for Almabayev is finding a way to get takedowns against a fighter who can be patient when it is called for.
Almabayev lands 2.11 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy rate of 56 percent. His striking defense is 59 percent, and he absorbs 1.02 significant strikes per minute. Almabayev averages 5.08 takedowns per 15 minutes, with an accuracy of 50 percent. His takedown defense is 50 percent.
Best Bets: UFC Vegas 103 Main Event: Manel Kape Vs. Asu Almabayev
Kape is the more skilled fighter in this matchup, and this fight could look a bit like the Kape vs. Muhammad Mokaev fight where Kape was worried about the wrestling of his opponent. However, Mokaev is a better wrestler than Almabayev, so I only suspect Kape will ease off his aggression of Almabayev scores takedowns and ground control early in this matchup, which is scheduled for five rounds.
The betting pick for the UFC Vegas 103 main event is for Manel Kape to beat Asu Almabayev via decision.
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