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- What: UFC 309
- Who: Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva
- Date: Saturday, November, 16, 2024
- Location: Madison Square Garden in NY, NY
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPNews), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones returns to the Octagon for the main event of UFC 309. Jones, who claimed the vacant UFC heavyweight crown in March 2023 with a submission win over Ciryl Gane, faces Stipe Miocic, the only man to defend the UFC heavyweight title three times, at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Saturday, November 16. Before that contest takes place, a pivotal women’s flyweight contest between Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva occurs on the UFC 309 PPV card. Here is some background on Araujo and Silva before we look at the UFC 309 betting breakdown.
Viviane Araujo (12-6) is the No. 9 ranked fighter in the UFC women’s flyweight division. A member of the UFC since 2019, Araujo is 2-3 in her past five outings and coming off a February decision loss to Natalia Silva.
Karine Silva (18-4) is ranked at No. 11 in the women’s 125-pound weight class. Silva joined the promotion in 2022. She is 4-0 in the UFC with three submissions. Her most recent win was an April decision over Ariane da Silva.
Before we look at the best bets for Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva on the UFC 309 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find our betting picks for the UFC 309 main event: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic.
UFC 309: Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Viviane Araujo | +215 | +240 | +205 | +220 |
| Karine Silva | -255 | -290 | -255 | -295 |
Viviane Araujo betting breakdown
The 37-year-old Viviana Araujo needs a win at UFC 309 if she hopes to hold on to her top 10 ranking in the UFC women’s flyweight division. The Brazilian went 4-1 in her first five fights with the UFC, but she is 2-4 since then. A loss to the younger Karine Silva will not bode well for Araujo’s career prospects.
Araujo is a grappler with some technical striking skills. She has three knockouts and four submission wins, but she hasn’t had a stoppage under the UFC banner since her debut fight with the promotion in 2019. On the other side of the equation, Araujo has never been submitted. Her only knockout loss came in her fourth pro fight in 2017. Despite her propensity to go the distance, Araujo’s cardio can sometimes fail her when she is not in control of the pace and position of her fights.
Araujo averages 4.11 significant strikes landed per minute with an accuracy of 47 percent. She absorbs 4.96 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 56 percent. Araujo lands 1.76 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 40 percent. Her takedown defense is 78 percent.
Karine Silva betting breakdown
Karine Silva is a smart fighter who uses her fight IQ to get her fights where she wants them, she then uses her skills to keep her opponent where she is at her best, and that is on the mat. Over her career, the 30-year-old Brazilian competitor has earned eight submission wins and nine knockouts. However, all of her knockouts came before she fought on the Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021. Silva, without a doubt, does her best work on the mat, as evidenced by her 7:32 of control time in her three-round decision win over Ariane da Silva. Silva is a threat from the top position as well as off her back.
Silva’s game plan is to usually use a flurry of strikes and pressure to force her opponent to the cage, where she then looks to get the fight to the ground. Her ground game is aggressive, and she looks to establish a dominant position and then searches for submissions. If she cannot find a sub, Silva is not afraid to use ground strikes to open things up or just to score with the judges.
Silva lands an average of 2.67 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 35 percent. She gets tagged 3.12 times per minute and has a striking defense of 49 percent. Silva averages 3.59 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 72 percent. No one in the UFC has attempted a takedown against Silva, but her DWCS opponent went two for two in takedowns.
Best Bets: UFC 309 – Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva
This matchup will determine which fighter will be a top 10 flyweight. While both fighters are talented, Silva has yet to reach her full potential and she has the bigger upside.
The betting pick is for Karine Silva to beat Viviane Araujo via decision or to pick up a finish late in the contest when her opponent’s cardio begins to fade.
See below the top offshore sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
Best Betting Sites 