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- What: UFC Vegas 91 Main Event
- Who: Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez
- Date: Saturday, April 27, 2024
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET) Main Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Prelims (ESPN2, ESPN+), Main Card (ESPN2, ESPN+)
Following the historic UFC 300 pay-per-view card, the UFC is on a short break until the promotion returns to the UFC Apex for the UFC Vegas 91 fight card on April 27. In the main event, Matheus Nicolau faces Alex Perez in a noteworthy flyweight matchup. Both fighters enter the upcoming scrap ranked inside the top 10 of the UFC’s 125-pound division. Nicolau checks in at No. 5 in the official UFC flyweight rankings, while Perez is the No. 9 fighter in the UFC’s 125-pound division. Here is some additional information on Perez and Nicolau before we look at the betting breakdown for the UFC Vegas 91 main event.
Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1) was on a six-fight winning streak, with four of those wins coming under the UFC banner before he lost to former UFC lightweight title challenger Brandon Royval by knockout in April 2023. Nicolau returns to the Octagon for the first time since that loss at UFC Vegas 91.
Alex Perez (24-8) is looking for a bounce-back performance at UFC Vegas 91. The former UFC title challenger is on a three-fight losing skid ahead of this card. His most recent loss was a March 2024 decision setback to Muhammad Mokaev.
Before we look at the best bets for the Nicolau vs. Perez matchup on the UFC Vegas 91 card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC Vegas 91 main event: Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez betting picks
| To Win UFC Vegas 91 Main Event |  |  |  |  |
| Alex Perez | +150 | +145 | +140 | +137 |
| Matheus Nicolau | -175 | -175 | -170 | -177 |
Matheus Nicolau betting breakdown
Now in his second run with the UFC, Matheus Nicolau went 3-1 for the promotion between 2015 and 2018. The 31-year-old Brazilian was initially booked to face Manel Kape in a rematch at UFC Vegas 91. That fight fell apart in early April and Alex Perez agreed to step in on short notice.
Nicolau is a patient and technical striker who packs a lot of power. He is also accurate in his striking, which makes his patience in waiting to find openings worthwhile. He also has good footwork and fast movement, which allows him to step in, strike, and then retreat before his opponent can react and counter his attacks. If there is a downside to Nicolau’s style it’s that he can be pressured and forced to fight with his back to the cage, which is something that Brandon Royval forced him to do before knocking out Nicolau. Another positive for Nicolau is that he does not chase knockouts. If he hurts his opponent, he stays patient and measured. Nicolau does not use his submission game often, but he has five submission wins and he has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Nicolau averages 3.66 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 53 percent. His striking defense is 66 percent, and he gets hit with 3.14 significant strikes per minute. Nicolau averages 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes, with an accuracy of 45 percent. His takedown defense is 93 percent, and he averages 0.9 submissions per 15 minutes of UFC action.
Alex Perez betting breakdown
Don’t let Alex Perez‘s three-fight losing skid lead you to believe he doesn’t have a chance in this matchup. Perez has lost to then-UFC champion Deiveson Figueiredo in 2020, current champion Alexandre Pantoja in 2022, and the now ranked No. 7 Muhammad Mokaev in March. In short, he has faced some of the best 125-pound fighters in the UFC over in his recent outings.
The 31-year-old Perez is an active striker who finishes his combinations with powerful leg kicks. It was those leg kicks that led to his most recent win, a TKO victory over Jussier Formiga in 2020. Perez is a little more aggressive in his striking than Nicolau, but that might not be a great thing in this matchup, as his defense is not up to par with his opponent in this fight. If Perez pursues Nicolau with too much aggression, he will be playing right into his hands. He needs to be selectively aggressive and look to time the counters of his foe.
The 32-year-old Perez lands 4.12 significant strikes per minute, but his accuracy is below Nicolau’s at 46 percent. He gets tagged at a clip of 3.14 significant strikes per minute, and his striking defense is 59 percent. Perez lands 2.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a takedown accuracy of 44 percent. His takedown defense is 82 percent and he averages 1.0 submission per 15 minutes.
Best Bets: UFC Vegas 91 main event – Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez
With how these two flyweights approach their striking, the main event of UFC Vegas 91 could be a technical battle that comes down to who is faster with their hands and able to move in and out of range with more speed. From what we have seen from Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez during their careers, Nicolau has the edge in that department. With that being the case, the betting pick is for Matheus Nicolau to defeat Alex Perez via decision.
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