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- What: UFC St. Louis / UFC on ESPN 56
- Who: Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
- Date: Saturday, May 11, 2024
- Location: Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO
- Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET), Main Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Prelims (ESPN+), Main Card (ESPN+, ESPN)
The UFC returns to St. Louis, Missouri, for the first time in nearly six years for Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 56 fight card. The event, which ESPN will broadcast, is headlined by a heavyweight contest between former title challenger Derrick Lewis and rising contender Rodrigo Nascimento. In the co-main event, Joaquin Buckley faces Nursulton Ruziboev in a welterweight scrap. Here is some background on Buckley and Ruziboev before we discuss the betting breakdown of the evening’s co-main event.
Joaquin Buckley (18-6) is the No. 11 fighter in the UFC welterweight rankings. Buckley, who competes out of St. Louis, is on a three-fight winning streak heading into this hometown fight card. He is coming off a TKO win over Vicente Luque in March at the UFC Atlantic City card.
Nursulton Ruziboev (34-82-2) is only two fights into his UFC career, but he has two knockout wins. His most recent victory came against Sedriques Dumas in a middleweight scrap in the UFC Atlantic City card. He is unranked in the UFC.
Before we look at the best bets for the Buckley vs. Ruziboev matchup on the UFC Vegas 56 fight card, check out the best UFC betting sites and our betting picks for the night’s main event: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento.
UFC St. Louis co-main event: Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | +134 | +130 | +135 | +131 |
| Joaquin Buckley | -154 | -155 | -165 | -168 |
Joaquin Buckley betting breakdown
As soon as he won in Atlantic City, Joaquin Buckley began to vie for a spot on the UFC St. Louis fight card. UFC CEO Dana White obliged Buckley, giving him the co-main event spot. The 30-year-old has not fought in St. Louis since 2016 when he scored a KO on a Bellator fight card.
Buckley has been with the UFC since 2020. He is in the midst of his second three-fight winning streak with the promotion. He spent most of his career with the UFC at middleweight. Since he dropped to 170, Buckley is 3-0 with two knockouts and one decision win.
Buckley has a lot of speed, good movement, and he packs a lot of power in his strikes, and despite packing a lot of muscle on his 5-foot-10 inch frame, he has solid cardio. His move to 170 pounds has suited him well. Buckley was the unranked betting underdog to the No. 11 Vicente Luque in his most recent fight. Buckley is comfortable on the feet. He usually focuses on the head and body of his opponent while putting together combinations when he commits to the striking game. Buckley is also unafraid to mix in takedown attempts to keep his foe on their toes. He employs lateral movement and uses feints to keep his opponent from getting a bead on him.
Buckley lands 4.06 significant strikes per minute, with a success rate of 34 percent. He gets hit, on average, 3.26 times per minute and his striking defense is 58 percent. As for grappling, Buckley lands 1.40 takedowns per minute with a success rate of 36 percent. His takedown defense is 69 percent, and he has never attempted a submission as a UFC fighter.
Nursulton Ruziboev betting breakdown
Nursulton Ruziboev has a massive height advantage in this matchup, as he checks in at 6-foot-5 to Buckley’s 5-foot-10. However, both men have a 76-inch reach. Despite his two UFC knockouts in his two fights with the promotion, Ruziboev is a wrestler more than a striker. His focus is to get the fight to the mat in any way he can. He is a strong ground fighter who looks for openings for submissions. He could use some work on his ground control, but his activity on the mat is an asset. Despite being a wrestler, Ruziboev will engage in striking battles, and he is unafraid to eschew his base if the fight calls for it.
If there are concerns heading into this fight about Ruziboev, the first will be his ability to cut to 170 from 185 so quickly. He has fought at welterweight as recently as 2022, but the short time for the cut is a worry. A bigger concern is that Ruziboev will abandon his grappling in favor of his striking. We have seen too many grapplers fall in love with their hands and abandon what has provided them with success. If Ruziboev does that against a striker as capable as Buckley, he could find himself in trouble in his matchup.
Ruziboev lands 3.93 significant strikes per minute, with a success rate of 43 percent. In his two fights with the UFC his striking defense has been outstanding as he has gotten tagged just 0.87 times per minute, and his striking defense is 80 percent. He has attempted one takedown, and got it, as a member of the UFC roster. It must be noted that the above numbers come from less than five minutes of UFC fight time.
Best Bets for UFC St. Louis co-main event – Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
Joaquin Buckley will be fired up for this fight. He practically begged to compete in St. Louis, and that means he will want to put on a show for the fans. That’s a worry. Another concern is that he could be overconfident thanks to his success at 170 pounds. If Buckley charges in with no regard to the strengths of Nursulton Ruziboev, things could go south for him very quickly. The betting pick is Nursulton Ruziboev to win by knockout.
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