by
- What: UFC 313 Co-Main Event
- Who: Justin Gaethje Vs. Rafael Fiziev 2
- Date: Saturday, March 8, 2025
- Location: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The next pay-per-view card on the UFC schedule, UFC 313, takes place on Saturday, March 8, from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. A title fight headlines the fight card. In that contest, UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira puts his belt on the line against Magomed Ankalaev. In the UFC 313 co-main event slot, No. 3 ranked lightweight Justin Gaethje faces the No. 11 ranked Rafael Fiziev in a rematch. Fiziev replaces the injured Dan Hooker on short notice. Before we look at the betting breakdown for the UFC 313 co-main event, here is some information on Gaethje and Fiziev.
Justin Gaethje (25-5) is one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC. Over his career with the promotion, Gaethje has earned 13 fight-night bonuses in 13 UFC fights. Gaethje lost his “BMF” title in his most recent fight, losing to Max Holloway via knockout at UFC 300.
Rafael Fiziev (12-3) returns to action for the first time since he tore his ACL in a loss to Mateusz Gamrot in September 2023. In his fight before that setback, Fiziev dropped a majority decision to Gaethje in a Fight of the Night bonus-winning scrap at UFC 286 in March 2023.
Before we look at the best bets for Gaethje vs. Fiziev on the UFC 313 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and our betting picks for the UFC 313 main event.
UFC 313 Co-Main Event: Justin Gaethje Vs. Rafael Fiziev 2 betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |
| Justin Gaethje | +125 | +115 | +112 |
| Rafael Fiziev | -145 | -145 | -143 |
UFC 313 Co-Main Event: Justin Gaethje betting breakdown
Justin Gaethje is a fearless fighter with 13 fight-night bonuses to his name in 13 UFC fights. Gaethje is an iron-chinned scrapper with some of the best leg kicks in the game. Over the past few years, the 36-year-old has morphed from a brawler into a more mature and measured fighter. Gone are the days of standing in the center of the cage and winging punches. Yes, the ex-interim UFC champ can summon that part of himself if the fight requires it, but he is calmer these days, and tends to use his striking to create openings rather than doing so via brute force and output. The former BMF champ has also improved his footwork, making him a more elusive fighter.
Gaethje ranks fifth among active UFC lightweights in significant strikes landed per minute with 6.78. His striking accuracy is the second-best in the division at 59.2 percent. However, Gaethje gets hit a lot, absorbing 7.46 significant strikes per minute with a defensive rate of 52 percent. Despite the number of strikes he absorbs, Gaethje has only been knocked down three times in his UFC career. Gaethje averages 0.11 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown success rate of 25 percent. Gaethje’s takedown defense is 75 percent, and he has yet to have a submission victory under the UFC banner.
Gaethje has 20 career knockout victories.
UFC 313 Co-Main Event: Rafael Fiziev betting breakdown
Rafael Fiziev is one of the quicker strikers in the UFC lightweight division. His speed with his hands, his fast and powerful kicks, and his ability to switch stances with ease make him a dangerous fighter. Another thing to watch with Fiziev is his patience. He doesn’t rush things. His confidence in his ability and the speed of his attacks allow him to take his time to break down his opponents over time, which lets him to bank rounds without worrying too much about chasing knockouts. Fiziev fights in a traditional muay Thai style. He mixes his techniques and targets well, has high output, but absorbs a fair amount of strikes.
There are some who thought Fiziev approached the first Gaethje fight with too much confidence. Don’t expect him to make that mistake again, as a third straight loss, even a short-notice setback, could drop him out of the rankings. Something the 31-year-old can ill afford.
Fiziev lands 4.90 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 51 percent. His striking defense is 49 percent, and he absorbs 4.97 significant strikes per minute. Fiziev lands 0.29 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 40 percent. He has a takedown defense of 89 percent.
Fiziev has eight career KO wins.
Best Bets: UFC 313 co-main event – Justin Gaethje Vs. Rafael Fiziev 2
Two questions stand out about this rematch. The first question is if Fiziev is the fighter he was before he underwent surgery. The other question is if Gaethje’s chin can stand up after absorbing the brutal knockout from Max Holloway at UFC 300. Fiziev has had a long time to recover from that surgery and he has been cleared to fight since September 2024, so he is not rushing into this rematch. As for Gaethje, he has absorbed a lot of damage over his career. Yes, he took off a fair amount of time following the Holloway loss, but his chin is suspect at this point in his career.
The betting pick is for Rafael Fiziev to beat Justin Gaethje via decision in the co-main event of UFC 313.
See below the top offshore sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
Best Betting Sites 